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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1245

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 06, 2018 19:32:28
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 061932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061931
    IAZ000-NEZ000-062100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska into east central Nebraska.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 061931Z - 062100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving across central Nebraska.
    This cluster of storms may produce isolated large hail and damaging
    winds as it moves east through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A weak cluster of storms has developed in an area of
    700 mb convergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet
    moving across central Nebraska. These storms are north of the
    surface front, but low-level dewpoints remain in the low 70s with
    temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the lack of low-level
    focus/convergence, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg ahead of this activity
    combined with effective shear around 50 knots per LNX VWP should be
    sufficient for storm maintenance as this activity moves east. These
    storms will initially pose a marginally severe hail threat with
    mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, but may eventually evolve into
    a greater wind threat if the cluster continues to grow upscale and
    develops a cold pool. A watch is not likely in the near term, but if
    this cluster does grow upscale and a more widespread damaging wind
    threat appears likely, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

    ..Bentley.. 08/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41969977 41939888 41929816 41969669 41879591 41429541
    40959549 40529613 40589660 40719735 40649830 40579943
    40979970 41439998 41969977



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