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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 06, 2018 19:13:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 061913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061912
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-062145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

    Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Lake Erie...Far Northwest
    Pennsylvania...New York...Lake Ontario

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 061912Z - 062145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat is expected to develop over
    the next couple of hours across the lower Great Lakes region. The
    threat should remain too isolated for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
    place across the lower Great Lakes region with surface dewpoints
    generally in the 65 to 70 F range. This has contributed to moderate
    instability this afternoon across much of the lower Great Lakes
    region with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range
    from northeast Ohio into western New York. Convection has developed
    along the periphery of Lake Erie where lake breeze boundaries are
    enhancing low-level convergence. This convection should spread
    northeastward across northwest Pennsylvania and western New York
    where low-level lapse rates have become steep. For this reason, a
    marginal wind damage threat may accompany the stronger multicells
    this afternoon.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42427742 41797955 41358096 41168175 41158248 41478297
    41978284 42408140 43357841 44307566 43457524 42427742



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