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ACUS11 KWNS 061822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061821
COZ000-062015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into far northeast New Mexico
and far southwest Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 061821Z - 062015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 20
UTC as severe storms develop with a threat of large hail and
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
higher terrain along the front range in southern Colorado and far
northern New Mexico. Expect these showers and storms to slowly
increase in size and intensity over the next 1 to 2 hours as the
downstream environment becomes less capped and more unstable.
Temperatures have increased to around 80 degrees with dewpoints in
the lower 60s in southeast Colorado. Modifying the DNR 12Z sounding
would suggest a mostly uninhibited vertical thermodynamic profile
east of the mountains once surface temperatures rise a few more
degrees. This would also lead to moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE at or
above 2000 J/kg. Effective shear of 35 to 40 knots per latest RAP
mesoanalysis will support storm organization, including the
possibility of supercells. Very steep mid-level lapse rates between
8 and 9 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis and 12Z DNR RAOB will support
large hail. In addition, moderate instability and shear combined
with these very steep mid-level lapse rates will support at least an
isolated threat of 2+ inch hail with the strongest storms.

All HREF members support stronger storm development between 19Z and
21Z which matches the expected timing of erosion of the capping
inversion. Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
issued by 20Z for most of southeast Colorado.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39100568 39090490 38970396 38570331 38340263 38130221
37330221 37130267 37060343 37040451 37070552 37980573
39100568



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