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ACUS11 KWNS 060232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060232
IAZ000-NEZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NE and western/central
IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060232Z - 060500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and damaging winds
could increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary
extends northeastward from southern NE into southern/central IA
based on 02Z surface observations. Thunderstorms will likely
continue to increase in coverage across parts of eastern NE into western/central IA through the evening as low-level warm air
advection and lift associated with a 30-40 kt southwesterly
low-level jet impinges on this region. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level
flow will also remain across this area through the overnight hours
per the 00Z OAX sounding. Resultant 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear
will support supercell structures, with an isolated large hail and
damaging wind risk. However, there will probably be some tendency
for convection to develop along and north of the surface
boundary/front based on recent radar trends, which may limit the
potential for surface-based thunderstorms. Increasing coverage of
thunderstorms with time may also reduce the hail threat as storm
mergers and interactions occur. Regardless, there will be at least a
somewhat favorable environment for severe storms through the
remainder of the evening as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates up
to 7.0 C/km and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg exist near/south of the
boundary. Watch issuance will be possible this evening, especially
if additional convection can form along/south of the surface front
and organize into one or more line segments.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40739871 41519785 42209627 42669491 42829429 42849287
42599260 42049245 41329304 40909499 40589673 40079856
40739871



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