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ACUS11 KWNS 060116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060116
NEZ000-KSZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...Northwest/west-central KS....South-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 060116Z - 060315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts are possible downstream of the
convective line moving through northwest KS. Additional storms
capable of hail are possible across north-central KS and adjacent
south-central NE.

DISCUSSION...Initially disorganized cluster of thunderstorms over
far east-central CO has recently shown a trend toward cold pool
amalgamation and a more organized linear structure. Recent imagery
from KGLD confirms this with indications that strong wind gusts are
probable as this line moves east-southeastward into the well-mixed
airmass across west-central KS. The more favorable thermodynamic is
a bit farther north and the general expectation is for the ongoing
line of storms to begin dissipating as it encounters the drier
airmass across central KS. However, before that occurs some very
strong gusts are possible. The severe threat is expected to remain
too spatial limited to merit a watch, although convective trends
will be monitored closely.

A strengthening low-level jet may result in additional storm
development along and north of the surface boundary extending from
west-central KS northeastward into southern IA. In this area,
vertical shear is a bit stronger and the overall thermodynamics are
more favorable (i.e. 100 mb mean mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and
MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg). As such, strong updrafts capable of severe
hail are possible. Uncertainty regarding coverage merits low watch probabilities at this point but trends are being watched closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38370121 38600196 39690177 40419905 38949913 38339995
38370121



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