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ACUS11 KWNS 052245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052244
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern IA...northwestern
IL...and far southwestern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052244Z - 060045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to damaging wind threat may exist for
the next couple of hours. Some severe hail may also occur. Watch
issuance is unlikely for now, but convective trends will be closely
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence along an outflow boundary from
earlier convection has been sufficient to generate additional
thunderstorms across part of eastern IA this afternoon. This
convection has organized into a small cluster about 75 miles to the
northwest of Davenport, IA as of 2240Z, and it should continue
moving east-southeastward along a boundary through the early
evening. Although stronger mid-level flow should remain somewhat
displaced to the north of this region, there is sufficient veering
in the low to mid-level winds per recent VWPs from KDVN to support
around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Coupled with a moist and
moderately unstable airmass downstream, this modest shear may be
enough to maintain the ongoing cluster, with mainly a strong to
locally damaging wind threat. Some isolated severe hail may be
possible as well given mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km.
Additional convection is beginning to form/strengthen across parts
of central IA near and just east of Des Moines along the outflow
boundary. It remains unclear how long this activity will persist,
whether it will grow upscale into a larger cluster, and whether the
overall severe threat will become more than isolated/marginal. For
now, watch issuance is unlikely, but radar trends will be closely
monitored for any signs of increasing convective organization.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41099197 41169290 41169332 41539357 41659346 41859295
42259186 42629147 42688994 42678916 42118919 41559021
41129135 41099197



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