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ACUS11 KWNS 052239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052238
KSZ000-NEZ000-060015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...North-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052238Z - 060015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across
northwest into north-central KS during the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Persistent moisture convergence along with modest
synoptic forcing for ascent tied to the enhanced mid/upper flow
farther north has lead to convective initiation over northwest KS
during the past hour. This area is on the southern end of the better
vertical shear and within a pocket of relatively higher instability.
The downstream airmass appears less favorable for sustained
thunderstorm activity, largely as a result of robust daytime heating
and resultant boundary-layer mixing. These factors, coupled with
slightly warmer mid-level temperatures, have resulted in reduced
instability across central KS. Additionally, the displacement
farther south and east of the strong synoptic forcing has resulted
in the presence of more mid-level dry air than areas farther west.
Entrainment of this drier air into the current updrafts and the
reduced instability over the region suggest gradual storm
dissipation should occur. That being said, strong convergence along
the storm outflow may result in storm persistence longer than the
environment would suggest, particularly if the storm becomes
well-organized in the next half hour or so. New development farther
north near the central NE/KS border is also possible. These storms,
if they develop, may also pose an isolated severe risk.

Current expectation is that the small spatial extent of the severe
threat will preclude the need for a watch but convective trends
across the region will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39640026 40039990 39969905 38959911 38389961 38200033
38320081 38460101 38980077 39640026



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