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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1236

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 05, 2018 20:58:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 052058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052057
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-052230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1236
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

    Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the Western Upper Peninsula
    of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 052057Z - 052230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few isolated strong to severe storms capable of large
    hail and damaging winds are possible this afternoon and into this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Much of northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
    Peninsula of Michigan has destabilized this afternoon with MLCAPE
    values around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear is
    quite strong with 70 to 80 knot winds measured around 7 to 8 km on
    the MQT VWP and 90 knots measured from the DLH VWP around 9 km.
    Therefore, the environment is favorable for supercells, and with
    mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 C/km, both large hail and
    damaging winds are possible from any sustained storms which can
    develop. Weak forcing for ascent and a lack of low-level focus will
    likely limit the number of storms which can form. Therefore, one or
    two supercells are possible through the remainder of the afternoon
    and into the evening. The need for a watch is uncertain at this
    time, but an increase in the number of storms or evidence of
    increased storm longevity may necessitate a watch.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46369186 46759109 46889012 46888894 46898815 46708735
    46468665 46228632 45888636 45508679 45328760 45218894
    45209025 45249148 45539267 45939263 46369186



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