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ACUS11 KWNS 052041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052041
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...Western Nebraska
Panhandle...and far northeast Colorado.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

Valid 052041Z - 052215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 329. Large hail and damaging winds remain the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION...The supercell which moved across much of Wyoming
produced several measured wind gusts, including a wind gust of 78
mph 2 miles east of Arlington. This storm has since weakened
somewhat as it moves into a drier airmass in the western Nebraska
panhandle. There is still considerable uncertainty how this activity
will evolve. The instability improves east of this storm which may
allow for additional strengthening of this storm and additional
storms which have formed to the north. However, this airmass was
quite strongly capped at 18Z per LBF RAOB and remains so with
modification for current surface observations. Some clearing in the
mid-level cloud deck may allow enough heating for this cap to weaken
which could rejuvenate this activity and require a downstream watch,
but the capping inversion may also inhibit any additional
redevelopment and suppress the existing convection with eastward
extent.

Additional storms are forming in south central Wyoming. These storms
have the potential to produce isolated large hail and damaging winds
given at least some buoyancy and the deep layer wind profile, but
earlier convection and cloud cover has likely kept the environment
east of this activity stable enough to limit a greater severe
threat.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42320602 42630524 42640405 42490312 42140269 41730208
41160192 40570197 40480229 40500338 40510408 40870590
41010635 41540641 42320602



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