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ACUS11 KWNS 051745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051745
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...Western Nebraska
Panhandle...and far northern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051745Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...There is an increasing severe weather threat through the
afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developed early this morning in far
southwest Wyoming ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave. These
storms have maintained their intensity across the state and the lead
storm in Carbon county has recently strengthened with a 66 mph wind
gust measured at 1120 AM at the Halleck Ridge WYDOT sensor. In
addition, this storm has recently exhibited strengthening mid-level
rotation and has turned to the right of the mean wind indicating it
is likely becoming more surface based. Most of southeast Wyoming has
been cloudy until the last few hours which has limited
destabilization with only around 250 to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE as of 17Z
per RAP mesoanalysis. However, this weak instability combined with
50 to 55 knots of effective shear has proven sufficient for
supercell development. Given the clearing ahead of this storm,
additional destabilization is expected with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg by later this afternoon per CYS forecast soundings.
This environment should support persistence of current storm
activity with additional storm development possible. Any storms
which develop will likely be supercellular given the forecast shear
and instability. Additional storms may develop over the terrain
through the day and continue to move into southeast Wyoming.

..Bentley.. 08/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42330813 42440724 42510593 42670454 42600345 42110315
41440289 40820281 40810355 40580523 41150689 41730807
42330813



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