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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1232

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 05, 2018 04:40:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 050440
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050439
    SDZ000-NEZ000-050645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1232
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 050439Z - 050645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail and strong wind gusts will continue
    into southeast SD over the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from the lone severe storm at the
    southern end of a small convective line continues to suggest the
    presence of a robust updraft currently capable of severe hail and/or
    strong wind gusts. Updrafts farther north within the convective line
    appear weaker and currently sub-severe. Expectation is for the line
    to continue southeastward into an airmass characterized by steep
    mid-level lapse rates, a favorable low- to mid-level moisture
    profile, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Resulting ample
    buoyancy will likely allow for the ongoing severe storm to maintain
    its strength for the next hour or so. Broad warm-air advection
    resulting from the low-level jet will also contributing to storm
    persistence. Thereafter, storm persistence becomes a bit more
    uncertain, largely a result of continued nocturnal cooling and
    gradually decreasing instability. Localized nature of the threat is
    currently expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43529717 42969783 42969877 43119931 43369958 43989967
    44289902 43999760 43529717



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