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ACUS11 KWNS 041958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041958
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Areas affected...northeast CO...far southeast WY...southwest NE and
the southern NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041958Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70mph) and hail are possible
with a couple of the stronger storms, especially as the storms move
into an airmass near and east of a Sydney, NE to Sterling, CO line.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar imagery shows a swelling
cumulus field and developing thunderstorms near the Cheyenne Ridge.
A very deeply mixed boundary layer has contributed to westerly
low-level flow mixing to the surface over the southwestern part of
the NE Panhandle and southeast WY as the exit region of a mid- to
high-level jet moves eastward into the north-central High Plains
this afternoon/evening. Surface temperature/dewpoint spreads are
45-50 degrees F to the west of the 102 degree longitudinal meridian (CO/southwest NE border) and dewpoints in the 60s degrees F to the
east. KCYS VAD data show westerly flow increasing with height to
50kt at 6km ARL.

Despite weak to negligible forcing for ascent aloft, further heating
and storms gradually moving downstream into richer low-level
moisture towards the northeast corner of CO, will promote greater
storm-scale processing and a corresponding increase in the
microburst potential via evaporative cooling. The main risk with
this activity later this afternoon/early evening will be severe
gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps large hail given sufficient effective
shear (30-35 kt) for organized storms. Uncertainty about severe
thunderstorm coverage is the primary concern regarding the need for
a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41340525 41660401 41700181 41280112 40470105 39970139
39930241 40390373 40480528 41340525



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