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ACUS11 KWNS 041353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041353
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-041430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 AM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Areas affected...eastern MA...eastern CT...RI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041353Z - 041430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a supercell tornado may maximize
during the next 30-60 minutes for portions of east-central MA.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over NY. A very moist boundary layer (16.2 g/kg lowest 100mb mean
mixing ratio) sampled by the 12Z OKX raob exhibited moderate
buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE). KBOX has recently shown a slight
strengthening in the 6km flow (35-40 kt southwesterlies) which is
supporting an ongoing supercell near the CT/RI/MA border. The main
limitation for a more heightened tornado risk appears to be the
modest low-level shear per KBOX/KOKX VAD data and the CHH/OKX raob. Nonetheless, the moist low levels coupled with a
supercell-supportive wind profile may yield a continued risk for a
mesocyclone capable of a weak/brief supercell tornado.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 42067214 42247156 42167125 41727123 41307183 41277217
42067214



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