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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1228

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 03, 2018 23:31:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032330
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1228
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0630 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

    Areas affected...Far east Colorado...northwest Kansas...far
    southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 032330Z - 040200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms may
    continue to produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail
    until after sunset. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse severe convection has initiated along a cold
    front along the Colorado/Kansas border, in an ambient environment
    characterized by around 1000-2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 30 knots of
    effective bulk shear. The ambient buoyancy is mainly driven by
    surface heating and associated steep low-level lapse rates, which
    are expected to wane at the onset of nocturnal cooling/boundary
    layer stabilization, when storms are expected to begin weakening.

    In the meantime, steep low-level lapse rates, combined with marginal
    shear profiles, may support severe hail growth in some of the more
    organized updrafts. The relatively drier, heated airmass in a
    dry-adiabatic sfc-700 mb layer will also support strong evaporative
    cooling with the more intense thunderstorm downdrafts, where
    additional instances of severe wind gusts may occur.

    Given the marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38070307 39250240 40240239 40840180 41330130 41160072
    40680053 39980067 39240093 38680158 38320203 38120234
    38070307



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