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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0290

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 26, 2018 18:14:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261814
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261813
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0113 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

    Areas affected...Southwestern into portions of central Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261813Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Probabilities appear fairly low, but the evolution of an
    isolated severe storm or two may not be out of the question across
    parts of southwestern Georgia, perhaps as far north as the Macon
    area, through the 3-5 PM EDT time frame.

    DISCUSSION...As a fairly vigorous short wave impulse maintains an
    eastward progression through portions of the central Gulf Coast
    states, a few thunderstorms have recently initiated across far
    southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia. This appears on the southernmost periphery of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent,
    where the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a seasonably modest
    influx of boundary layer moisture off the Gulf of Mexico is
    supporting weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg.

    Generally south of the mid-level cold core of the system, forecast
    soundings indicate that capping mid/upper-level layers may remain
    problematic to sustained vigorous thunderstorm activity. However, a
    window of opportunity may still exist for an isolated intensifying
    storm or two across parts of southwestern into central Georgia
    through about the 20-21Z time frame, before the mid-level wave
    begins to pivot northeastward toward the southern Appalachians. If
    this occurs, it will do so in a strongly sheared environment (near a
    50-60+ kt 500 jet) capable of supporting supercell structures and at
    least some severe weather potential before encountering a more
    stable low-level environment across central Georgia.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 32438432 32608359 31338385 30858495 31258519 32438432



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 17:50:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 081750
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081749
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-081915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

    Areas affected...Central/South-Central/Southwest VA...Central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 081749Z - 081915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and the potential for
    damaging wind gusts and hail is expected to warrant watch issuance
    within the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Environment across south-central/southwest VA and
    central NC continues to destabilize as temperatures climb into the
    mid/upper 70s and dewpoints remain in the mid 60s. Visible satellite
    shows an increasing agitated cumulus field, although with limited
    vertical development so far. Continued broad ascent within the
    southwesterly flow aloft coupled with further heating and
    destabilization is expected to result in thunderstorm development
    within the next hour or so. Predominantly linear structures are
    anticipated (much like those already ongoing across western NC) with
    vertical shear supportive of modest storm organization/rotation.
    Expectation of at least scattered thunderstorm coverage coupled with
    potential for damaging wind gusts and hail will likely merit the
    issuance of a watch within the next hour or two.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 36388147 37098101 37468046 37677973 37507877 36797830
    35147946 34858058 35378188 36388147



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