1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1226

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 03, 2018 21:06:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1533330376-55329-828
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 032106
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032105
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-032200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1226
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0405 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota and Southwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 032105Z - 032200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...There is a threat of isolated severe weather across
    eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota this afternoon into
    this evening. Limited coverage of strong to severe storms will
    likely preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...The significant capping inversion observed on the
    Aberdeen, SD 12Z RAOB has suppressed much of the convection today
    south of elevated activity across the South Dakota/North Dakota
    border this afternoon. The lack of much boundary layer cumulus south
    of this activity and significant mid-level cloud cover would suggest
    that the cap may struggle to break. A few storms are still possible,
    and considering MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg and effective shear
    is around 30 knots, any stronger surface based storms which are able
    to develop have the potential to become severe with large hail and
    damaging winds possible. However, given the uncertainties about
    storm development and the relatively isolated area of severe risk if
    any storms do develop, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

    LAT...LON 44719876 45269820 45529776 45689735 45739687 45889615
    45879539 45819506 45649480 45409441 44949420 44569428
    44379489 44109584 43759659 43229704 42829765 42749819
    42619875 42669925 42919939 43919929 44719876



    ------------=_1533330376-55329-828
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1533330376-55329-828--

    --- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)