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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1225

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 03, 2018 20:15:21
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032015
    MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-032115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1225
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

    Areas affected...Extreme southeastern NY/western MA to southeastern
    NH and extreme southern ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 032015Z - 032115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional damaging gusts will remain possible with
    supercells along a front/differential heating boundary, and with the
    merging clusters spreading northeastward from southeastern NY. The
    severe threat duration should be the next 2-3 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms with supercell structures is
    spreading east-northeastward across southeastern NH, close to a
    differential heating zone/weak stalled front. The storms are along
    the north edge of a corridor of moderate buoyancy, and the southern
    fringe of the stronger midlevel flow. There will be a narrow window
    of opportunity for the storms to persist along the front, until
    weakening late this afternoon/evening as the storms cross into the
    remnant sea breeze air mass just inland from the ME coast. Farther
    southwest, a loosely organized cluster of storms is spreading
    northeastward from extreme southeastern NY toward northwestern CT
    and western MA. Additional storm mergers are expected as the
    outflow with the cluster intersects the composite
    front/outflow/differential heating zone. The strongest storms have
    produced some tree damage and a measured 52 mph gust at the Beacon
    mesonet site in southeastern NY. The severe threat should be
    confined to the narrow zone along the front for the next 2-3 hours,
    though the need for a watch is not clear.

    ..Thompson.. 08/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 43447148 43607108 43787067 43667043 43337094 42777128
    42197188 41817276 41617342 41737377 41907398 42247368
    42877255 43447148



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