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ACUS11 KWNS 031948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031948
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Areas affected...Near the Idaho...Montana...and Wyoming Border

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031948Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible into the
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...An approaching shortwave trough has triggered several
storms in the higher elevations surrounding Yellowstone. Weak
buoyancy has limited the severity of these storms thus far, but
MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be sufficient for a few
stronger storms given effective shear is between 40 and 50 knots per
latest RAP mesoanalysis. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse
rates and at least some storm organization due to the shear profile,
isolated hail and damaging winds are both possible with these storms
and any additional storms which develop.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

LAT...LON 44921272 45441211 45881113 46090997 46160839 45870750
45390699 44940689 43800800 43530934 43511051 43891164
44251253 44921272



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