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ACUS11 KWNS 031705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031705
WIZ000-MNZ000-031800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Areas affected...Central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031705Z - 031800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible through early
afternoon with large hail as the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed in an area of isentropic
ascent in central Minnesota. The best elevated instability remains
farther southwest, but MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective shear
around 30 to 35 knots will lead to some multicell storm
organization. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (9.4 C/km on ABR 12Z
RAOB) will support an isolated hail risk with any of the stronger
updrafts. The low-level jet is expected to weaken somewhat through
this afternoon which should lead to a gradual weakening of the
storms.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46939590 46869475 46569372 46179283 45859252 45519255
45349282 45519365 45909476 46459575 46679596 46939590



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