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ACUS11 KWNS 031545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031545
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Areas affected...southeast and east-central NY...western
MA...southern VT/NH...far southern ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031545Z - 031745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated 45-60 mph gusts, in turn capable of localized
wind damage, are possible this afternoon from southeast NY
northeastward into southern ME. It remains unclear whether a severe thunderstorm watch will be needed based on storm coverage and
magnitude of the overall threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field over the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England.
Surface analysis indicates temperatures have warmed to around 80
degrees per NY Mesonet data and into the middle 80s near coastal
NH/ME. A seasonably moist airmass was sampled this morning by the
Chatham, MA 12z raob with a lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio around
16g/kg. Modifying this sounding shows around 1100 J/kg MLCAPE. The
KALB VAD indicates 30-40 kt flow in the 3-6km ARL layer and is
resulting in 30-45 kt 0-6 km shear per objective analysis with the
higher magnitudes located over the VT/NH/ME corridor.

Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the differential heating
boundary (delimited by the low-cloud shield) from southeast NY
northeastward into southern VT/NH. Additional thunderstorms are
likely to develop over the next 1-3 hours as convective inhibition
erodes due to additional heating. Primarily multicell clusters
capable of an isolated risk for 45-60 mph gusts will pose a damaging
wind hazard with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 41947517 42727415 43617272 44127006 43736987 42857078
42207323 41447467 41947517



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