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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1220

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 02, 2018 20:40:45
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022040
    WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1220
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Thu Aug 02 2018

    Areas affected...Southern Montana...Northwest Wyoming...and far
    northeast Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022040Z - 022245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue to develop through the
    evening with isolated severe wind gusts as the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Several storms have formed in a dry environment across
    southern Montana and northwest Wyoming this afternoon. Dewpoints in
    this area are mostly in the upper 40s to near 50 F. The dry
    low-levels has led to weak buoyancy across much of this area. This
    weak instability will limit the overall threat, but effective shear
    around 40 knots per RAP mesoanalysis will be sufficient for some
    updraft organization. Expect additional storms to develop across
    this area and further west into Idaho through the afternoon. A
    nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate from the surface to greater than 500
    mb per RAP forecast soundings will favor downward momentum transfer
    and support the potential for some severe winds from the stronger
    storms. This wind threat is supported by the KBLX radar at 2030Z
    with measured severe winds around 2000 feet ARL southwest of
    Billings.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 08/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

    LAT...LON 45691291 46081171 46380918 46030679 45460649 44520681
    44340739 44171001 43981131 43861256 43871319 43981372
    44211405 45111382 45691291



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