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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1219

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 02, 2018 20:14:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022014
    GAZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1219
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Thu Aug 02 2018

    Areas affected...central GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022014Z - 022045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Highly localized area where supercell tornado potential is
    focused along a warm front this afternoon. A weak/brief tornado is
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a MCV over west-central GA near the
    AL/GA border with a couple of weak supercells developing along a
    warm front extending eastward from the MCV into east-central GA.
    KJGX radar indicated a dual-pol debris signature from the storm that
    move from Jones into Jasper counties around 4pm EDT. Surface
    streamline analysis implies low-level convergence is maximized along
    the warm front and hodographs are locally favorable for low-level mesocyclonegenesis. The composite 88D VAD from KFFC and KJGX shows
    low-level easterlies in the lowest 1000ft beneath strongly veering
    flow strengthening into the 25-35 kt range in the 1-5 km AGL layer.
    As a result, a supercell-supportive wind profile is evident in a
    local west-east corridor along and immediately north of the warm
    front. The very moist low levels coupled with the augmented
    hodograph along the warm front will at least support some weak/brief
    tornado risk for the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33508409 33728315 33448258 32918272 33088408 33508409



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