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ACUS11 KWNS 012352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012352
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Areas affected...Central and northeast IA...extreme southeast
MN...and southwest and central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012352Z - 020215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and locally strong wind gusts are possible
this evening across central and northeast Iowa into southwest and
central Wisconsin. Given limited coverage in space and duration,
watch issuance is not warranted.

DISCUSSION...The atmosphere across central and northeast IA into
southwest and central WI is expected to remain moderately unstable
and weakly sheared to support multicell storms as a cold front
advances southward through the discussion area. Forcing for ascent
attendant to a shortwave trough detected by water vapor imagery will
further continue to spread across IA and southwest to southern WI
this evening aiding in additional updraft development. DCAPE of
800-1000 J/kg south of the front across IA should enhance the
potential for locally strong wind gusts, while weak midlevel lapse
rates and weak effective bulk shear may temper the hail size. The
exception for the latter threat will be across central WI, where
effective bulk shear is a little stronger and forcing for ascent is
greater given closer proximity to the shortwave trough.

..Peters/Hart.. 08/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42369421 43039267 43659180 44159133 44459068 44709022
44848971 44878923 44308871 43588882 43308909 42519036
41849208 41369363 41469448 41839478 41989482 42369421



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