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ACUS11 KWNS 291822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291822
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-291945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018
Areas affected...portions of east TX...far southern AR and northern
LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291822Z - 291945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon. The
marginal nature of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms was showing signs of some
intensification this afternoon across parts of northeast TX into far
southern AR. These storms are along the southward tracking cold
front and associated with the remnants of an overnight MCS. The
downstream airmass has experienced strong heating and with
temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints near 70 F and MLCAPE has
increased to around 2000 J/kg. However, modest midlevel lapse rates
and weak deep layer shear will limit organization and longevity of
stronger cells. This weak shear, high CAPE environment coupled with
PW values around 2 inches, will support occasional strong downburst
winds. The overall threat is expected to remain limited and a watch
is not anticipated.
..Leitman/Grams.. 07/29/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32769560 33389378 33439225 32769178 32199173 31629223
31289332 31149462 31499547 32109577 32769560
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