• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1193

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 29, 2018 18:22:27
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291822
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291822
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-291945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1193
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

    Areas affected...portions of east TX...far southern AR and northern
    LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291822Z - 291945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon. The
    marginal nature of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms was showing signs of some
    intensification this afternoon across parts of northeast TX into far
    southern AR. These storms are along the southward tracking cold
    front and associated with the remnants of an overnight MCS. The
    downstream airmass has experienced strong heating and with
    temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints near 70 F and MLCAPE has
    increased to around 2000 J/kg. However, modest midlevel lapse rates
    and weak deep layer shear will limit organization and longevity of
    stronger cells. This weak shear, high CAPE environment coupled with
    PW values around 2 inches, will support occasional strong downburst
    winds. The overall threat is expected to remain limited and a watch
    is not anticipated.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32769560 33389378 33439225 32769178 32199173 31629223
    31289332 31149462 31499547 32109577 32769560



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