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ACUS11 KWNS 282310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282309
AZZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282309Z - 290015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Westward-propagating convection will produce isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail through the evening. A
WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Westward-propagating clusters of relatively high-based
storms continue across the discussion area. These storms are in an
environment characterized by steep low- and mid-level lapse rates,
moderate (2000-2500 J/kg) buoyancy, and marginal deep shear. Weak
easterly mid-level steering flow was supporting the westward motion
of the storms. The buoyancy will support isolated severe downbursts
at times, and as storms continue to congeal, one or more convective
clusters should emanate into lower-terrain areas across central and
southern Arizona over time. Any severe threat should be too sparse
to necessitate a WW issuance.

..Cook.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 35631244 35631292 34901361 34171387 33451397 32651394
32271368 31911297 31531210 31341095 31310989 31700966
32580985 33691039 34621114 35061167 35631244



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