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ACUS11 KWNS 282302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282301
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Areas affected...northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...and
northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 282301Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop southeast next few hours
posing a threat for mainly isolated large hail and damaging wind,
but a tornado or two will also be possible. A WW will likely be
needed over a part of northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas by 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms including a few supercells continue to
spread east and southeast off the mountains and into southeast WY
and northeast CO. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable
with around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and modest convective inhibition.
Visible imagery also shows a cumulus field has increased over
northwest KS within a low-level confluent flow regime. Given a
modest inversion centered near 700 mb, it remains uncertain whether
new development will occur independent of storms spreading off the
higher terrain. Model guidance indicates an upper speed max
advancing southeast, and this will continue to augment effective
bulk shear (40-50 kt) as storms advance southeast. In the near term
(next 3 hours) isolated storms, including a few supercells, appear
to be the primary threat in this region. Later this evening storms
are expected to congeal into an MCS (possibly evolving in part out
of storms consolidating over northwest NE) and advance southeast,
posing an organized damaging wind threat from parts of western NE
into northwest and north central KS.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40610372 41010262 41780243 42080175 41540055 39689998
38990114 39280249 40610372



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