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ACUS11 KWNS 011915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011915
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern WV...MD...northern VA...and central/eastern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011915Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through
the afternoon, with some risk for strong to locally damaging winds.
Watch issuance is possible depending on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown gradual clearing
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon downstream of a
large-scale upper trough centered over the MS Valley. A very moist
low-level airmass is present across this region per 12Z area
soundings and recent surface observations. With continued diurnal
heating through the remainder of the afternoon, surface temperatures
will generally warm into the mid/upper 80s, with MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg likely. Strengthening flow at mid-levels will support effective
bulk shear of 40-50 kt, although the main contribution to these
shear values will come from increasing wind speeds with height
rather than directional turning. One or more bowing line segments
may eventually develop off the higher terrain of eastern WV/northern
VA/western MD and move into parts of central/eastern PA by early
this evening. If this were to occur, then a relatively greater
potential for strong to damaging winds may be realized. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.0 C/km) will likely limit
updraft strength, and the overall coverage of strong to severe
thunderstorms remains in question.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37837972 37828024 38168032 39267979 40447829 40767755
41167727 41617693 41877640 41837545 41187506 39297701
38667775 37837972



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