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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 01, 2018 17:48:50
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 011748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011748
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-012015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern NJ...southern NY including
    NYC...and CT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 011748Z - 012015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving northward across a warm front may
    pose a brief/isolated tornado and strong wind risk through the
    afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Lightning has recently developed with shallow
    convection across far northern NJ into southern NY. This activity is
    probably associated with a weak mid-level impulse and related
    low-level warm air advection. 17Z surface analysis shows a warm
    front draped west-to-east across this region. Although mid-level
    flow remains mostly unidirectional from the southwest, modest
    veering and strengthening of the low-level winds is present along
    the warm front per recent VWPs from KOKX, KENX, and KBOX. Related
    effective SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2 along and south of the warm
    front may be sufficient to support weakly rotating updrafts, with a brief/isolated tornado and strong wind gust possible. Lapse rates
    will remain poor across this region today, which coupled with
    widespread cloudiness will likely limit instability. Therefore, the
    overall severe threat is expected to remain quite marginal and
    isolated, with watch issuance not expected.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

    LAT...LON 40637462 41447435 41917404 42047355 41987316 41707274
    41447278 41237296 40557392 40467425 40547442 40637462



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