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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1213

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 01, 2018 04:13:27
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010413
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010413
    MIZ000-010545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1113 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

    Areas affected...Extreme southeastern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 010413Z - 010545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized/marginal tornado threat may persist through
    06z across extreme southeastern Lower MI.

    DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone is moving north-northeastward across
    extreme southeastern Lower MI in association with a low-midlevel
    trough ejecting north-northeastward from the larger-scale trough
    over the OH and mid MS Valleys. Low-topped convection is occurring
    in a small cluster near and just northeast of the surface cyclone,
    along a surface baroclinic/cyclonic shear zone. This area is along
    the northwestern edge of the stronger midlevel flow, and coincident
    with large low-level vertical vorticity and modestly enhanced
    low-level SRH along the boundary. Though lapse rates are poor,
    sufficient low-midlevel buoyancy should persist in the moist
    environment to maintain low-topped rotating storms within the
    cluster as is moves across extreme southeastern Lower MI for the
    next few hours. The lack of stronger buoyancy and a broader zone of
    stronger low-level shear will tend to confine the threat to a
    brief/weak tornado or two in the very narrow zone from northeastern
    Monroe County into eastern Wayne County through about 06z.

    ..Thompson.. 08/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...

    LAT...LON 42438267 41988321 41998337 42118338 42408312 42538292
    42578274 42538265 42438267



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