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ACUS11 KWNS 010237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010237
OHZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Areas affected...north central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010237Z - 010330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over north central OH
through about 04Z. But overall threat is expected to remain too
marginal for any WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a small cluster of storms including
a couple with weak to modest/broad updraft rotation is moving
through north central Ohio at around 25 kt. The environment is
characterized by weak instability (MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg) and
weak lapse rates. Despite the marginal character of the
thermodynamic environment, the storms are interacting with a warm
front where surface winds are backed to southeasterly, and the
low-level jet is forecast to increase to around 35 kt this evening
supporting 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. While a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out next hour or two, very weak
thermodynamic profiles including a stabilizing boundary layer
suggest the threat should remain very limited.

..Dial/Thompson.. 08/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 41028254 40588285 40658346 41168328 41268273 41028254



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