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ACUS11 KWNS 312002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312001
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-312230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Areas affected...Far southeast Indiana...southwest Ohio...far
northeast Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312001Z - 312230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Very isolated severe possible, with strong gusty winds the
main threat. An isolated, very brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A
WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Skies have been clearing, with buoyancy increasing just
ahead and to the north of a slowly eastward propagating surface low.
Aloft, a 500 mb vort max is moving from southeast Indiana into
east-central Ohio, providing deep layer ascent that may aid in the
initiation of convection within the next few hours.

Currently, the ambient thermodynamic environment is characterized by
poor mid-level lapse rates (averaging around 5.5 C/km in the 3-6 km
layer), atop a very moist low-level airmass, yielding 500 J/Kg
MLCAPE across northern portions of the discussion area, increasing
to 1500 J/kg south. While low-level speed shear is relatively weak,
some directional shear is present within the sfc-925 mb layer, with
up to 150 m2/s2 0-3km SRH present across the discussion area based
on RAP point forecast soundings and mesoanalyses. In addition, 40-50
knots of effective bulk shear suggests that storms which can
organize in the present (marginally buoyant) environment may
potentially become organized or even rotate.

The more organized storms would have the potential for very
isolated, marginally severe wind gusts. In addition to the stronger
deep-layer shear, storms that can organize/intensify closer to the
500 mb vort max and surface low (where sufficient amounts of
low-level vorticity exists) may acquire strong enough low level
rotation to produce an isolated, very brief tornado. Given the very
isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 38218454 38558506 38958532 39618522 39998493 40308432
40288390 39928345 39378312 38798299 38478307 38248337
38058399 38218454



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