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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1209

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 30, 2018 20:47:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 302047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302047
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1209
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 302047Z - 302315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues with the QLCS over northeast
    Oklahoma. This QLCS has a history of severe wind and that remains
    the main threat with these storms as they move to the southeast.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS has moved from southern Kansas into northeast
    Oklahoma producing a streak of severe wind reports (60-70 mph)
    across these areas. An upper-level shortwave trough is providing
    ascent and helping to increase shear/winds near and ahead of the
    QLCS. Daytime heating behind the overnight/early morning convection
    has destabilized this area and the CAPE/shear environment (MLCAPE
    1000-1500 J/kg; effective bulk shear 30-40 knots) should sustain the
    QLCS through northeast Oklahoma into the evening. A bowing
    segment/embedded supercell is likely to continue at times within the
    line of storms with severe wind likely and the main threat for this
    area. However, the overall severe threat should remain relatively
    confined, likely precluding a watch issuance.

    ..Nauslar/Grams.. 07/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35469700 35319637 35079563 35069507 35109445 35249398
    35559369 35879369 36299379 36589385 36819402 36989426
    37059473 36829533 36669608 36569678 36489758 35919739
    35469700



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