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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1208

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 30, 2018 19:46:19
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301946
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301946
    NMZ000-COZ000-302215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1208
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 301946Z - 302215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing near Raton Pass and will move
    south-southeast through the afternoon. Hail/wind are the main severe
    threats, but a brief tornado could occur.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are developing over the northern mountains of
    New Mexico as the Cu field matures over northeast New Mexico. Weaker disturbances embedded in northwest flow over the region should
    provide some extra ascent as these storms develop. Strong, almost unidirectional northwest flow aloft is enhancing effective bulk
    shear (40-50 knots), and with weak buoyancy in place (MLCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg), a couple of strong/severe storms should develop.
    Severe hail/wind are possible with these storms and at least one
    supercell is likely to develop. Low-level southeasterly-easterly
    winds may locally enhance low-level shear and support a brief
    tornado associated with supercellular development. A watch is
    unlikely given the overall expected lack of coverage of severe
    storms across northeast New Mexico.

    ..Nauslar/Grams.. 07/30/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35600636 36450605 37000520 37010439 36600380 35380348
    34360340 34130356 34090406 34140486 34170542 34300574
    34550634 34680643 35110642 35600636





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