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ACUS11 KWNS 301757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301757
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018
Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301757Z - 302030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a surface boundary and near a
remnant MCV/gust front from continuing overnight convection. Strong
wind gusts are the main threat.
DISCUSSION...As the daytime heating increases over the Lower
Mississippi, scattered convection should continue to develop with a
focus near the surface front and remnant MCV/gust front. The MCV
within the convection over southern Arkansas may locally enhance and
organize convection upscale as the storms move southeast. Moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) should help sustain storms, and
as daytime heating continues, low-level lapse rates may support an
isolated severe wind threat. With weak shear (effective bulk shear <
30 knots) farther to south, airmass and possibly pulse severe
storms are likely. However, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves
over Arkansas, forcing/ascent and shear will increase possibly
leading to better upscale organization and short QLCS development.
However, given the overall marginal CAPE/shear environment, a watch
is unlikely.
..Nauslar/Grams.. 07/30/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31359298 31729260 32239214 32629182 33309171 33629165
33999149 34219105 34299064 34299035 34199019 33869018
33389020 32719028 32179046 31579063 31179103 30719162
30519261 30799298 31359298
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