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ACUS11 KWNS 301717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301717
OKZ000-KSZ000-301945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301717Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving south-southeast across
central Kansas. Storms may intensify as the area re-destabilizes and
severe hail is possible.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is digging southeast
across the Great Plains today and per RAP analysis/water vapor
imagery, a vorticity maximum is helping to provide forcing/ascent
for the cluster of storms over central Kansas. These storms should
continue moving south-southeast and may intensify as the area
destabilizes (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) after the overnight
convection. Shear is supportive of severe hail (effective bulk shear
of 40-50 knots), but the overall multicellular evolution could
inhibit sustained, rotating updrafts/cells. With the stronger flow
aloft, storms should move rather quickly to the south-southeast
through the afternoon. Additionally, with the upper-level support
and low-level destabilization, cells may develop ahead of this
cluster. Due to the multicellular structure and lack of steep
low-level lapse rates, the overall severe potential/coverage
precludes from issuing a watch at this time. However, if the cluster
can organize into a QLCS, a watch may be necessary later this
afternoon.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 07/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36219669 36109710 36019768 36069837 36359868 37059903
37369917 37799916 37859894 37919885 38009848 38089792
38209748 38249713 38299651 38129639 37869621 37689607
37469591 37279579 37129572 36879569 36629564 36499599
36449621 36219669





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