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ACUS11 KWNS 301450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301450
ARZ000-301645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Areas affected...portions of southern AR.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301450Z - 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The remains of an overnight convective complex, having
entered southwestern AR, may produce strong/isolated severe gusts
through the remaining forenoon hours. The severe threat presently
appears too marginal in magnitude and limited in coverage for a
watch, but will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Some re-intensification trend has been noted with the
convective complex over the past 30-60 minutes -- both in IR
cloud-top cooling and radar-composite imagery. Surface mesoanalysis
shows a weak, quasistationary frontal zone in preconvective
environment over southern AR, representing the trailing extension of
a cold front extending southwestward from a frontal-wave low over
western KY. A corridor of relatively maximized convergence, in
otherwise weak boundary-layer flow, may help to focus convective coverage/strength over the next few hours as the residual cold pool
of the MCS continues forward-propagating along and behind its
outflow boundary. The favorably moist air mass over southern AR
should continue to destabilize somewhat before thicker anvil cloud
cover moves overhead, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough
to boost MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg, based on modifications to both
model soundings and an interpolation of 12Z SHV/LZK RAOBs.
Low-level and deep shear each will remain weak. The bulk of
reflectivity may remain several miles behind the outflow boundary,
except for a warm-advection wing not directly related to the cold
pool and posing minimal severe threat on its own. As such,
organized severe potential appears limited, but isolated damaging
gusts still are possible.

..Edwards/Grams.. 07/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33199388 33589405 34319395 34439290 34329196 33259192
33129286 33199388



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