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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 24, 2018 21:55:35
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242155
    TXZ000-250030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 242155Z - 250030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and hail threat should develop
    eastward this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely mainly due to the
    marginal thermodynamic environment.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along
    and just ahead of a surface trough located over west TX. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
    this region, but low-level moisture return has been very limited
    thus far. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads generally around 40-45
    degrees imply a very well-mixed boundary layer, and convective
    downdraft winds will likely be enhanced as they reach the surface,
    possibly producing isolated severe-caliber gusts. Although winds in
    the 0-3 km layer remain weak per 2136Z VWP from KLBB, they do veer
    and strengthen slightly into mid-levels. This is supporting
    effective bulk shear values around 30-35 kt, which should be
    marginally supportive of organized updrafts and perhaps some hail
    threat with the strongest cores. Tendency with time should be for
    convection to congeal into some form a loosely organized
    line/cluster as it moves eastward this evening, with strong to
    locally damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The limited
    low-level moisture and resultant marginal thermodynamic environment
    should tend to keep the overall severe threat isolated, and watch
    issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31650029 31550090 31590160 31920225 32170221 32530197
    33040206 33190209 33520190 33760093 33749993 33379952
    32869938 32389950 31989981 31650029



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 16:01:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 081601
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081601
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-081800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1101 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

    Areas affected...Far Western VA...Far Northeast TN...Far Western NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 081601Z - 081800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the
    next few hours. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible
    and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery reveals a defined
    vorticity maximum moving across middle/eastern TN. Northeastward
    motion of this MCV will take it along the VA/KY border over the next
    few hours. Downstream air mass is currently cloudy and with limited instability. However, gradual destabilization is anticipated as
    diurnal heating leads to a thinning of the cloud cover and modest
    heating amidst continuing moisture advection.

    Lift attendant to the MCV will interact with the resulting modestly
    unstable air mass and increasing thunderstorm coverage is
    anticipated over the next few hours. Evidence of this ascent is
    already apparent in visible satellite imagery where agitated cumulus
    is visible beneath the higher clouds. A banded/linear convective
    structure is anticipated and the shear is supportive of occasionally
    rotating storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.
    The limited instability introduces some uncertainty as to when/if
    storms will become severe but convective trends will be monitored
    closely for potential watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 35168285 35198354 35478397 35848415 36458391 36988315
    37308213 37178116 36398119 35518191 35168285



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