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ACUS11 KWNS 300245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300244
OKZ000-TXZ000-300345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Areas affected...a portion of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into
northwest and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 300244Z - 300345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 03Z
from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into central Oklahoma as
storms continue developing southward into the southern Plains. Large
hail and damaging wind appear likely with primary threat
transitioning to damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of storms continues developing along and north
of an outflow boundary that is moving south at around 40 kt through
southwest KS. Strong to severe storms are embedded within this MCS,
and new development appears likely as the outflow boundary
intercepts richer low-level moisture with surface dewpoints near 70
F present near the KS/OK border supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE. As
new updrafts initiate along the outflow boundary, the MCS is
expected to evolve into an organized linear system with bowing
segments and embedded meso-vortices possible into the early morning.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36770183 36939983 36839787 35699695 34809746 35200040
35780167 36770183



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