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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 29, 2018 20:35:28
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 292035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292034
    AZZ000-292230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

    Areas affected...portions of southern and central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 292034Z - 292230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce strong, locally damaging winds
    through the evening. Given the marginal and isolated nature of the
    threat, a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms near Tuscon recently
    recorded a gust of 48 kt at ALK. This cluster will continue to
    produce occasionally strong wind gusts as it migrates westward given
    a deeply mixed and dry sub-cloud layer. With northward extent into
    parts of central AZ, midlevel lapse rates become steeper, on the
    order of 7.5-8 C/km near PHX and PRC. In this vicinity, early cloud
    cover has resulting in some lingering inhibition, but hi-res
    guidance continues to suggest at least a couple of storms may
    develop this evening, leading to a strong wind threat. Though this
    scenario is less clear than the ongoing storms further south,
    potential impact could be greater if storms affect the Phoenix area.
    Overall threat should remain marginal and isolated and a watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 34611323 34821261 34911198 34391086 33511005 31290954
    31311103 31591199 32791285 33761323 34611323



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