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ACUS11 KWNS 291846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291846
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-291945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Areas affected...southeast WY...NE Panhandle...northeast and
east-central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 291846Z - 291945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed by 2-3pm MDT for
expected severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and an
associated risk for tornadoes, from southeast WY into northeast CO.
A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued farther east from
the Black Hills vicinity southward into northwest KS.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus
field over extreme southeast WY located downstream and to the
southeast of glaciating convection 35 mi south of DGW. Low-level
upslope flow is maintaining a moist fetch into the central High
Plains and the boundary layer will continue to warm through the
middle to upper 70s by mid afternoon. KCYS VAD data shows a
strongly veering hodograph around 1-1.5 km ARL with flow increasing
with height through 5km. Forecast soundings show west-northwesterly
flow increasing from 50kt at 500mb to 90kt at 250mb. As low-level
lapse rates steepen and additional heating occurs, convective
inhibition will erode and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop and intensify.

Supercells are likely to evolve from the most intense updrafts with
splitting supercells expected given the straight-line hodographs
depicted in forecast soundings. Large to very large hail will
likely occur with the stronger and more persistent/rotating
updrafts. A tornado risk will tend to be confined to southeast WY
and northeast CO where RH in the boundary layer will not support as
much of a destructive tendency for cold/hostile RFDs. The tornado
risk is conditional on right-moving supercells interacting and
favorably augmenting the near-storm environment later this afternoon
and early evening.

Farther northeast near the Black Hills and the western part of the
NE Sandhills, less favorable buoyancy and low-level shear will tend
to promote a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41330570 42180556 43090471 44010311 43800221 43340174
39580091 38710208 38650392 39220502 41330570



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