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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1186

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 28, 2018 21:11:25
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282111
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282110
    COZ000-282215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1186
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0410 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 282110Z - 282215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms will pose a localized large
    hail and damaging wind threat late this afternoon. While a higher
    severe threat may materialize towards the east later this evening,
    it will likely remain too low for watch issuance over much of east-central/southeast Colorado.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong/severe cells have developed ahead of an
    MCV over east-central Colorado this afternoon. Locally convergent
    flow extending to the east of ongoing storms may support further
    downstream initiation as well. An 18Z DNR sounding and current
    meso-analysis indicate non-negligible convective inhibition remains
    over the Colorado Plains, and a lack of upslope flow / stronger
    large-scale forcing suggests convection will struggle to develop
    away from focused convergence. In turn, the severe threat should be
    too localized for watch issuance. Nonetheless, favorable effective
    shear and low/mid-level lapse rates will support a hail/wind threat
    in the strongest cells.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 07/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37560237 37400299 37590414 37840466 38340490 39060488
    39220470 39310383 39280334 39070291 38760246 37560237



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