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ACUS11 KWNS 282041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282041
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Areas affected...eastern OK...northwest AR...southeast KS...far
southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282041Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/localized severe gusts are possible
for the next few hours prior to storms weakening this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows thunderstorms developing within a
low-level moist axis (lower 70s surface dewpoints) from eastern OK
northward into southeast KS. KINX VAD data has shown 30-45 kt
northwesterly flow in the 7-9km layer with similar magnitudes also
sampled by KSGF. Moderate buoyancy coupled with a wind profile
supportive of multicells and slow-moving marginal supercells will
lend a risk for a couple of storms capable of large hail (primarily
1-2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts (60 mph).
Confidence is high in the spatial bounds of the potential risk for
severe, but the number of storms and magnitude of the overall risk
suggests a severe thunderstorm watch is probably not needed.

..Smith/Grams.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 33909581 35499623 37839539 36829414 35489414 33909581



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