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ACUS11 KWNS 280252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280251
OKZ000-TXZ000-280345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...the northeast Texas Panhandle through northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 280251Z - 280345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue developing southeast next couple
hours, eventually affecting parts of the OK and TX Panhandles into
northwest OK. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much of
a severe threat will exist south of ww 317, but current thinking is
that storms will continue pose a risk for damaging wind. A WW will
likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have consolidated into a small MCS over
southwest KS along with a persistent supercell southeast of Dodge
City. The storms are moving generally south at around 30-35 kt.
Modest instability still persists in the downstream atmosphere with
around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but the boundary layer continues to
stabilize. The somewhat marginal thermodynamic environment along
with weaker winds aloft with southward extent into OK lower
confidence to some degree in longevity of overall threat. However,
storms remain severe with 66 kt recently reported at Syracuse KS and
continue to organize along consolidated cold pool. This along with
evidence of an MCV and rear inflow jet suggest storms may continue
to pose a severe threat next few hours as they move south of WW 317.

..Dial/Guyer.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36790081 36989959 36889843 36459818 36129843 35899907
35890000 36180084 36790081



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