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ACUS11 KWNS 272256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272255
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming...southwest
South Dakota through northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272255Z - 280100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms will continue to pose a risk for large
hail and locally strong wind gusts through 02Z followed by a gradual diminishing trend. It appears coverage of storms/severe events will
probably remain too sparse for a WW issuance, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Very isolated storms continue developing within a broad
northwest flow regime from the northern Rockies through the central
Plains of northern NE. A few subtle vorticity maxima, the higher
terrain, and convective boundaries continue to serve as focusing
mechanisms for initiation. Based on current surface observations
with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s F, along with
RAP forecast sounding, the storms are developing within a marginally
unstable environment with 800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE along with modest
(6.5-7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. However, effective bulk shear
from 45-50 kt and the discrete nature of the storms will continue to
support a few supercell structures capable of large hail and locally
strong downdrafts. Due to very sparse storm coverage and somewhat
limited duration of the greater severe threat (next 3 hours or so),
a WW will probably not be needed.

..Dial/Guyer.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45820725 44580289 41999847 40619948 43400521 45210885
45820725



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