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ACUS11 KWNS 271836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271835
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western Kansas to far southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271835Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further intensify over
western Nebraska and far northeast Colorado this afternoon, with an
increasing threat of large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple
tornadoes. Watch issuance is expected within the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of loosely organized storms has persisted
across far northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle through
mid-day. Further low-level warm advection, augmented by weak
east/southeast upslope trajectories, should maintain this cluster
and support new development (especially along the upshear flank)
early this afternoon. While storms have been slow to intensify due
to a relatively modest thermodynamic environment, increasing
insolation (yielding upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) southeast
of this cluster should favor gradual organization/deepening of cores
through mid afternoon.

Although an 18Z LBF sounding sampled weak low-level flow, increasing northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels will combine with adequate
directional shear to likely support supercell clusters and one or
more bowing segments accelerating southeast. Such a mode evolution
will favor severe winds as the main threat, with an increasing
potential of intense gusts (75+ mph) as cells move into Kansas. Very
large hail will also be possible with semi-discrete cells, as well
as a couple tornadoes (primarily towards late afternoon and
evening). This overall increasing threat will necessitate watch
issuance within an hour or so.

..Picca/Grams.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39270282 39570393 40070483 40840542 41520581 42140568
42210504 41570295 41100175 40260038 39659977 38579949
38159977 37740016 37590076 37690133 38050190 38970260
39270282



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