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ACUS11 KWNS 271728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271728
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern WV...much of
VA...and the western half of MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 271728Z - 271830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage
the next few hours over the area. The main threats are severe wind
gusts and marginally severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Heating from the eastern Appalachians to the Chesapeake
Bay area amidst low-to-mid 60s dewpoints over WV to mid-to-upper 70s
dewpoints over the east has contributed to moderate instability with
little remaining convective inhibition. A subtle shortwave rounding
the base of the upper low and lift in the frontal zone now crossing
western WV has led to rather early thunderstorm development over
that area, with additional thunderstorms now forming in the vicinity
of a weak pre-frontal trough over central VA and in the very moist
air mass over eastern VA. Given sufficient deep-layer shear
magnitudes and mostly straight hodographs, storms are expected to
have a mixed multicell/discrete supercell characteristics in the
early part of the event, with a few more line/bowing segments
developing as storms mature. Both severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms through the
afternoon, the coverage of which is expected to be large enough to
need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over at least portions of the area
in the next hour.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38857649 37927749 37587913 37487993 37728168 37948221
38328209 38678137 39038063 39447977 39617871 39557716
39367673 38857649



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