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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1171

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 27, 2018 16:59:46
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 271659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271659
    MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-271830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1171
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1159 AM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

    Areas affected...Portions eastern PA...southern and eastern NY...far
    western CT...far western MA...and far southwestern VT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 271659Z - 271830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop in the next few hours and pose
    a threat for some wind damage and severe wind gusts, as well as
    marginally severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating to the east of a cloud shield over the
    northern Appalachians and western Catskills has led to thunderstorm
    development along a weak trough/differential heating boundary.
    Sufficient deep-layer shear should support some storm organization
    in the form of small bowing segments and discrete cells with
    supercell characteristics, and steepening low-level lapse rates
    within upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints should support the threat for
    some damaging winds and severe wind gusts, with some severe hail
    potential in any rotation that can persist in the discrete storms.
    The coverage of the severe threat is likely large enough to need a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the next hour.

    ..Coniglio/Grams.. 07/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 43417390 43217304 42907272 42277274 41107367 40217465
    39877538 39757589 39777663 39907709 40277711 42007550
    43417390



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