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ACUS11 KWNS 270007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270007
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...southeast Wyoming...northeast Colorado...northwest
Kansas and adjacent southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...311...

Valid 270007Z - 270200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310, 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe weather risk continues across WW 310 and 311.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered to isolated storms
moving southeast across the High Plains region, in part having
developed due to a weak upslope flow regime. With 1000 to 1500 J/kg
CAPE existing across the area, fueling the ongoing storms, and with
a southerly low-level jet progged to increase this evening, storms
are likely to continue for several hours.

Atop the low-level southeasterly flow, mid-level northwesterly winds
around 30 kt shear is not only sufficient for organized/rotating
updrafts, but also increasingly supportive of southeastward
propagation should convection grow upscale into a cluster or two.
We will continue to monitor for this potential, which could
necessitate the need for a later watch (or extension in area) south
of the ongoing boxes.

..Goss.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
RIW...

LAT...LON 43590591 43410467 43030346 41180218 40349989 38889962
38200087 38190518 41910623 42700614 43590591



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