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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1168

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 26, 2018 22:58:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262257
    AZZ000-270000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1168
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

    Areas affected...Central into Southeastern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 262257Z - 270000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will propagate southwestward from
    higher terrain areas of the Mogollon Rim over the next few hours. A
    WW is not anticipated for this activity, although damaging wind
    gusts may occur on an isolated basis.

    DISCUSSION...Storms that have developed across higher terrain in
    central Arizona will have an isolated downburst threat over the next
    couple of hours or so. These storms are in a weakly sheared
    environment with less than 20 kts of steering flow below the lowest
    9km of the troposphere. Strong heating and moist mid-levels has
    contributed to weak to moderate instability (500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE)
    however, and weak northeasterly mid-level flow has encouraged modest southwestward propagation toward lower elevations of the region. It
    is uncertain how far southwest storms will migrate through the
    evening, and the extent of propagation will ultimately depend on
    storm-scale processes and maturing outflows beneath ongoing storms.
    Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not
    anticipated at this time.

    ..Cook.. 07/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 34621332 34781305 34971230 34581097 34181032 33530965
    33070905 32530912 32411031 33211173 34231317 34621332



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