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FOUS30 KWBC 262008
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Day 1
Valid 15Z Thu Jul 26 2018 - 12Z Fri Jul 27 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH DEPARTING FRONT IN THE
NORTHEAST... AND CONTINUING IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...15 UTC Update...
A small marginal area was introduced across portions of
northwestern VA and extreme eastern WV. A number of hi-res models
show the potential for isolated/scattered convection developing
east of the spine of the Appalachians this afternoon. Instability
(MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) this afternoon looks sufficient along
with continued very moist low-levels to support very localized
heavy rainfall rates (near 1 in/hr). Drier air at the mid-levels
evident on 12Z soundings from the region will likely preclude
widespread convection, however. Given saturated ground from recent
heavy rains and resultant low FFG values, a marginal risk was
introduced. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing Day 1
outlook from overnight.

Ryan


Previous Discussion...

...Northeast...
Rain, with a few embedded heavier convective cells, will continue
moving northeast across portions of Northern New England this
morning. This rain will continue lifting quickly north with a lead
shortwave. The flash flood threat with this lead activity is
likely low given the generally weak rates expected. The surface
front is not expected to have cleared through the region by 18Z,
though, which will allow instability to build in the wake of the
clearing rain. This should allow for additional convective
development by early this afternoon from portions of central MA
northeast into central ME. The 0z HREF suggests localized 2"
totals are possible with this afternoon activity. This could cause
localized flash flooding, particularly if it occurs in areas that
received heavy rainfall in the 24 hours immediately prior.
Therefore, a Slight Risk was maintained across portions of
Maine...with a Marginal extending south into portions of Southern
New England.

...Rockies...
The combination of broad easterly (upslope) flow in the low
levels, with the right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak, should lead to fairly widespread convection developing
along a convergence axis near the Rockies from Wyoming south into
Colorado and New Mexico. Quite a bit of model spread with regards
to exactly where convection tracks/focuses, and thus where the
heavier totals end up. The deep layer mean wind will have a
relatively large component perpendicular to the terrain...however
supercell motions should have more of a north to south
component...opening up the possibility of cell mergers off the
terrain of CO. Further south over NM, mean winds are weaker,
potentially allowing for slower cell motions and thus a bit longer
period of heaver rates. PWATs are not all that anomalous over
CO...however should be running well above normal over NM.

Overall, not a clear cut flash flood risk...however if there is a
higher threat it is likely along and east of the Rockies from
eastern CO into eastern NM. The better supercell and cell merger
potential over CO, and the slower cell motions and higher PWATs
over NM. Portions of this area have also been anomalously wet of
late...and thus also more prone to flash flooding. Will thus
maintain a Slight Risk here. A few of the 0z high res models focus
the heavier convection further east across portions of NE/KS south
into the OK/TX Panhandles. This is certainly possible...but even
if this does occur the flash flood threat here will likely be
lower given drier antecedent conditions/higher FFG and a pattern
conducive to progressive convective clusters. Thus a Marginal risk
should suffice here.

Chenard



Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 27 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 28 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...Central and Southern Rockies and Adjacent Plains...

Large scale ascent/divergence passing over the northeast portion
of the Southwestern Ridge and return upslope moisture will provide
sufficient forcing/moisture for diurnally driven convection along
the terrain from Wyoming to New Mexico and continue to pose an
isolated flash flood threat Saturday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, a Marginal Risk was maintained to cover this potential.

The large scale ascent from approaching shortwave and modest
diffluence aloft will help generate a deepening surface cyclone in
northeast CO. Along with strong daytime heating and moisture
return across eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming will provide
strong instability exceeding 2500 J/kg late afternoon into evening
and on the nose of the strengthening LLJ responding to the height-falls/cyclogenesis, strong thunderstorms will develop and
grow upscale into an MCS through the overnight hours. There is a
bit of uncertainty on the track of the MCS given divergent
solutions in 500-1000 thickness patterns and slightly different
orientation to the enhanced isentropic ascent to the strengthening
(veering) LLJ. Northward focus to development (12z GFS/ARW, 00z
ECMWF) show greater angle of incidence with the LLJ and track the
MCS across central KS. This is opposed by a central CO
development focus presented by the 12z NAM-Conest, NMMB, and 12z
ECMWF suggest a sharper angle/less orthogonal and a development of
cells into Southwest KS and OK panhandle. Eventually, as the mean
wave passes across Neb/Kansas and the LLJ continues to veer and
increase the angle of ascent across the draped boundary for
isentropic ascent. Either way, strong moisture flux and potential
training warrant warrant a Slight Risk to be expanded across much
of western half of Kansas, the border of eastern Colorado, and
southwest Nebraska.

A secondary QPF/heavy rainfall swath will exist along the
mid-level frontogenetic boundary across the Sand Hills into
northeast Nebraska, where strong moisture convergence and moderate
mid-level elevated instability will be tapped for convective
development. Here reduced depth of the rainfall generation and
generally better soil conditions warrant an expansion of the
Marginal Risk area to account for some heavy rainfall/isolated
flash flooding risk here as well.


...Mid-Atlantic to New York....

Maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over Central
Pennsylvania and south-central New York, however expanded the risk
area east to include the compromised lower flash flood guidance in
the urban corridor from New York City/Northern NJ to Northern
Virginia. Global model guidance suggested a slightly faster
eastward shift of a subtle shortwave across the Great Lakes
rounding the base of the closed low in Ontario. This wave
supports increased low level convergence along the lingering
boundary, increasing some instability and moisture to 1.5" total
PWAT for efficient rainfall production. While overall coverage is
not as great as earlier this week, there is at least localized
potential for heavy downpours capable of exceeding the low flash
flood guidance values.

Gallina

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 262009
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Day 1
Valid 15Z Thu Jul 26 2018 - 12Z Fri Jul 27 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH DEPARTING FRONT IN THE
NORTHEAST... AND CONTINUING IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...15 UTC Update...
A small marginal area was introduced across portions of
northwestern VA and extreme eastern WV. A number of hi-res models
show the potential for isolated/scattered convection developing
east of the spine of the Appalachians this afternoon. Instability
(MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) this afternoon looks sufficient along
with continued very moist low-levels to support very localized
heavy rainfall rates (near 1 in/hr). Drier air at the mid-levels
evident on 12Z soundings from the region will likely preclude
widespread convection, however. Given saturated ground from recent
heavy rains and resultant low FFG values, a marginal risk was
introduced. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing Day 1
outlook from overnight.

Ryan


Previous Discussion...

...Northeast...
Rain, with a few embedded heavier convective cells, will continue
moving northeast across portions of Northern New England this
morning. This rain will continue lifting quickly north with a lead
shortwave. The flash flood threat with this lead activity is
likely low given the generally weak rates expected. The surface
front is not expected to have cleared through the region by 18Z,
though, which will allow instability to build in the wake of the
clearing rain. This should allow for additional convective
development by early this afternoon from portions of central MA
northeast into central ME. The 0z HREF suggests localized 2"
totals are possible with this afternoon activity. This could cause
localized flash flooding, particularly if it occurs in areas that
received heavy rainfall in the 24 hours immediately prior.
Therefore, a Slight Risk was maintained across portions of
Maine...with a Marginal extending south into portions of Southern
New England.

...Rockies...
The combination of broad easterly (upslope) flow in the low
levels, with the right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak, should lead to fairly widespread convection developing
along a convergence axis near the Rockies from Wyoming south into
Colorado and New Mexico. Quite a bit of model spread with regards
to exactly where convection tracks/focuses, and thus where the
heavier totals end up. The deep layer mean wind will have a
relatively large component perpendicular to the terrain...however
supercell motions should have more of a north to south
component...opening up the possibility of cell mergers off the
terrain of CO. Further south over NM, mean winds are weaker,
potentially allowing for slower cell motions and thus a bit longer
period of heaver rates. PWATs are not all that anomalous over
CO...however should be running well above normal over NM.

Overall, not a clear cut flash flood risk...however if there is a
higher threat it is likely along and east of the Rockies from
eastern CO into eastern NM. The better supercell and cell merger
potential over CO, and the slower cell motions and higher PWATs
over NM. Portions of this area have also been anomalously wet of
late...and thus also more prone to flash flooding. Will thus
maintain a Slight Risk here. A few of the 0z high res models focus
the heavier convection further east across portions of NE/KS south
into the OK/TX Panhandles. This is certainly possible...but even
if this does occur the flash flood threat here will likely be
lower given drier antecedent conditions/higher FFG and a pattern
conducive to progressive convective clusters. Thus a Marginal risk
should suffice here.

Chenard



Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 27 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 28 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...Central and Southern Rockies and Adjacent Plains...

Large scale ascent/divergence passing over the northeast portion
of the Southwestern Ridge and return upslope moisture will provide
sufficient forcing/moisture for diurnally driven convection along
the terrain from Wyoming to New Mexico and continue to pose an
isolated flash flood threat Saturday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, a Marginal Risk was maintained to cover this potential.

The large scale ascent from approaching shortwave and modest
diffluence aloft will help generate a deepening surface cyclone in
northeast CO. Along with strong daytime heating and moisture
return across eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming will provide
strong instability exceeding 2500 J/kg late afternoon into evening
and on the nose of the strengthening LLJ responding to the height-falls/cyclogenesis, strong thunderstorms will develop and
grow upscale into an MCS through the overnight hours. There is a
bit of uncertainty on the track of the MCS given divergent
solutions in 500-1000 thickness patterns and slightly different
orientation to the enhanced isentropic ascent to the strengthening
(veering) LLJ. Northward focus to development (12z GFS/ARW, 00z
ECMWF) show greater angle of incidence with the LLJ and track the
MCS across central KS. This is opposed by a central CO
development focus presented by the 12z NAM-Conest, NMMB, and 12z
ECMWF suggest a sharper angle/less orthogonal and a development of
cells into Southwest KS and OK panhandle. Eventually, as the mean
wave passes across Neb/Kansas and the LLJ continues to veer and
increase the angle of ascent across the draped boundary for
isentropic ascent. Either way, strong moisture flux and potential
training warrant warrant a Slight Risk to be expanded across much
of western half of Kansas, the border of eastern Colorado, and
southwest Nebraska.

A secondary QPF/heavy rainfall swath will exist along the
mid-level frontogenetic boundary across the Sand Hills into
northeast Nebraska, where strong moisture convergence and moderate
mid-level elevated instability will be tapped for convective
development. Here reduced depth of the rainfall generation and
generally better soil conditions warrant an expansion of the
Marginal Risk area to account for some heavy rainfall/isolated
flash flooding risk here as well.


...Mid-Atlantic to New York....

Maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over Central
Pennsylvania and south-central New York, however expanded the risk
area east to include the compromised lower flash flood guidance in
the urban corridor from New York City/Northern NJ to Northern
Virginia. Global model guidance suggested a slightly faster
eastward shift of a subtle shortwave across the Great Lakes
rounding the base of the closed low in Ontario. This wave
supports increased low level convergence along the lingering
boundary, increasing some instability and moisture to 1.5" total
PWAT for efficient rainfall production. While overall coverage is
not as great as earlier this week, there is at least localized
potential for heavy downpours capable of exceeding the low flash
flood guidance values.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 28 2018 - 12Z Sun Jul 29 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...Central Plains...

At the start of the period, 28/12z Saturday, isentropic ascent
will be continuing to maintain convection across south central
Kansas into northern/northeast OK with 30-40kt southwesterly 850mb
LLJ weakening to 20kts by 18z across Northeast Oklahoma before
eventually shifting back to the upslope regime. This should
soften the drier soil conditions across southeast KS/northeast OK
before the next round later in the evening. The broad upper
level diffluence remains across the southern Colorado Rockies even
as the main wave has passed to the east, weaker (15-20kt ESEly)
but sufficient upslope flow returns to produce another bout of
strong convection across southeast Colorado into the OK Panhandle,
antecedent conditions across SE Colorado have been softened with
multiple bouts this weak, and given slightly slower cell motions,
expanded the Slight Risk area to encompass this threat around 00z.
Much like the prior night, and limited north/southward drift the
lingering boundary will again act as the focus for the upscale
growth of the complex across S central KS/northern OK by 03z with
the LLJ ramping up to 30-35kts and advecting the pooled moisture
(TPW up to 1.75"). The combination of two consecutive days/MCSs
allows for the Slight Risk to expand into Northeast Oklahoma where
current FFG values are quite high. This falls in line with the trends/orientation of the ECMWF axis, though expanded the Marginal
area south to encompass the GFS axis.

A Marginal Risk expands north-northwestward along SE Wyoming/NE
Colorado/SW Nebraska where weak upslope, slow cell motions and
multiple prior daily bouts of heavy rainfall expose the area for
isolated flash flooding.

Much like the prior evening, the elevated deformation/frontal zone
across Nebraska should have sufficient ascent/moisture flux and
MUCAPEs to support an enhanced area of rainfall, but with all
parameters a bit weaker/lower, the resultant rainfall threat
should be reduced and so expanded the Marginal Risk to encompass
only areas of lowered FFG along the Missouri River Valley of SE
Nebraska/SW Iowa/NE Kansas/NW Missouri.

...Southwest...
Diurnal heating along terrain is expected to produce convection
across the higher terrain of Southeast Arizona and ranges of
west-central New Mexico. While deep moisture has shifted
southeast with the shortwave forcing a day ago, lingering modest
moisture along the return easterly flow will exist up to 1.25"
across the elevated area of SE Arizona. Some of the cells may
support outflows that may initiate convection further west into
the deeper moisture (1.5-1.75") in the Soronan deserts, and with
weak flow near the mean ridge center may pose at least a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding.

Gallina



Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 271903
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

Day 1
Valid 15Z Tue Nov 27 2018 - 12Z Wed Nov 28 2018

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON...

No changes needed to the outlook for the 15z update. -Chenard

The elongated Atmospheric River directed into western WA-OR early
this morning will drop south to the Bay Area and Central CA Coast
later Tue-Tue night, as the upper jet axis and associated
shortwave energy result in an initial round of height falls before
more substantial trough amplification on day 2. Robust exit region
upper jet forcing coincident with an expansive warm conveyor belt
(WCB) directed into the CA coastal ranges and western valleys will
bring 1-1.25" PW values into the outlook area later this morning
(which is 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal). Meanwhile, the
models continue to show the low-level moisture transport and
deep-layer integrated water vapor transport (IVT) decreasing with
time later today, as 45-55 kt 850 mb winds subside to ~25 kts by
00Z Wed. As a result of the waning moisture flux, the excessive
rainfall threat will be predominately before 00Z Wed and confined
primarily over the burn scars in northern CA and southwest OR,
where the latest 1-hour FFGs are locally ~0.50" and 3-hour values
1" or less. Given the steady southward progression of a weakening
AR, the excessive rainfall threat remains marginal, which was
supported by the 00-06Z HREF exceedance probabilities.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 28 2018 - 12Z Thu Nov 29 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG SANTA LUCIA INTO
WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...Central California and Northern/Central Sierra Nevada Range...
At the start of the excessive rainfall period (28/12z), a flat
shortwave will be translating across northern California with a
fairly tightly packed unidirectional moist flow crossing the Bay
Area into the Northern Sierras providing a plume of deep moisture
flux across the area. Hi-Res guidance is a bit more bearish than
the higher rate/QPF amounts from the global guidance of the 12z
NAM/GFS and 00z ECMWF but given 1.25" Total PWS and modest 250
J/kg MUCAPE, the slacking onshore flow from 20-30kts to 15-25kts
from 12z to 00z as the wave departs eastward, maintain the threat
of .5"/hr rates in the S Santa Cruz and northern Santa Lucia
range. In the lull between the exiting wave and the
deeper/stronger height-falls approaching toward 06-12z on the
29th, the moisture flux will reduce slightly but also be much
slower dropping south, this allows for increased moisture totals
across the Santa Lucia Range, reaching 2-3" areal averages, while
not as imposing across the Sierra, old burn scars from 2016
(Soberness and Chimney) and slightly increased rates (closer to instability/moisture source) suggest an upgrade to a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall is warranted after coordination with local
forecast offices.

...Central to Southern Coastal California...
The Slight Risk was expanded further south into the western most
Transverse ranges and Thomas burn scar; however there is greater
uncertainty of timing and therefore magnitude of rainfall before
the end of the forecast period. The stronger height-falls/compact
shortwave should spur increased moisture flux and refocus of
showers and potential embedded thunder (250 J/kg MUCAPEs remain)
around 09-12z, and again suggest up to .5"/hr rates possible,
especially as IVT values start to peak around 400-450 kg/ms, on
1.25" total PWATs and strong speed convergence at nose of 25-30kt
LLJ. This is within the 97th percentile of climatology, further
supporting the expansion of the Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk
extends southward into the Santa Ana to account for slight
variance in timing (given recent trend faster).

Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 29 2018 - 12Z Fri Nov 30 2018

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...Southward to the Southern Coastal Ranges...
At the start of the Day 3 time period 29/12z, heavy rainfall with
rates up to .5"/hr are likely to be ongoing across Ventura into
Los Angles county across the Thomas and fresh Hill/Woosley fire
burn scars. As such, a continuation of the Slight Risk from Day
2, will introduce an area for these burn scars for Day 3.
Tropical moisture plume will be starting around 1.2" but quickly
eroding with toward 1.0" by 18z while sliding southward fairly
quickly due to increasing low level vertical shear in the column
as the main wave continues to press eastward and the plume/surface
flux presses south quickly. Still, orientation of the plume and
onshore flow will be favorably oriented to the Peninsular ranges
providing prolonged moisture flux throughout the day. While the
main moisture plume presses south, the low level flow will
strengthen post-plume with 30-40kts of 850mb flow nearly
orthogonal to the ranges, providing a more prolonged rainfall
threat, but rates near .5" initially across the Holy fire burn
scar in the Santa Ana mountains and 24hr areal average of 1.5-2.5"
in the Palomar/San Bernadino and San Jacinto Ranges suggest a
second Slight Risk area is warranted with coordination with San
Diego WFO.

...Sierra Nevada Range...
Slightly better model agreement and slightly faster model trends
provided confidence in increasing rainfall magnitudes across the
Southern Sierra Nevada range throughout the day 3 period, most QPF
will be elevated enough to fall as snow, but the foothills remain
under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and potential
flooding/runoff issues.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 101954
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Day 1
Valid 15Z Mon Dec 10 2018 - 12Z Tue Dec 11 2018

The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 11 2018 - 12Z Wed Dec 12 2018

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...Pacific Northwest...
At the start of the period (11/12z), the broad trough over the
Gulf of Alaska will be sharpening along the southeast periphery as
a jet streak energy rotates through it. This enhances overall DPVA/cyclogenesis and helps to strengthen the broad low level flow
into the Pacific northwest. Low level flow of 40-45 kts directed
into the the terrain of the Olympic, Coastal and Cascade ranges
with lingering moderate moisture as well as secondary push of
enhanced low level moisture maintains total precipitable water
values at or slightly above 1" for much of forecast period with
IVT magnitudes in the 500 kg/ms range or about 2-2.5 standard
deviations from normal. The frontal zone will press
south-southeast in the 21-00z range in NW WA, sliding through OR
coastal ranges over night to 06z, and with some cold air advection
aloft (due to the shortwave tilt/jet enhanced circulation) and
relatively warm low level flow suggest some weak instability of
100-250 J/kg allowing for the potential for hourly rain
rates/totals up to .5" suggesting a low threat for isolated flash
flooding conditions on creeks/streams with average rainfall totals
in the forecast period around 2-3". This should be sufficient to
maintain the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the windward
side of the mountains below the freezing levels.

Gallina/Pagano

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 101957
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Day 1
Valid 15Z Mon Dec 10 2018 - 12Z Tue Dec 11 2018

The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 11 2018 - 12Z Wed Dec 12 2018

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...Pacific Northwest...
At the start of the period (11/12z), the broad trough over the
Gulf of Alaska will be sharpening along the southeast periphery as
a jet streak energy rotates through it. This enhances overall DPVA/cyclogenesis and helps to strengthen the broad low level flow
into the Pacific northwest. Low level flow of 40-45 kts directed
into the the terrain of the Olympic, Coastal and Cascade ranges
with lingering moderate moisture as well as secondary push of
enhanced low level moisture maintains total precipitable water
values at or slightly above 1" for much of forecast period with
IVT magnitudes in the 500 kg/ms range or about 2-2.5 standard
deviations from normal. The frontal zone will press
south-southeast in the 21-00z range in NW WA, sliding through OR
coastal ranges over night to 06z, and with some cold air advection
aloft (due to the shortwave tilt/jet enhanced circulation) and
relatively warm low level flow suggest some weak instability of
100-250 J/kg allowing for the potential for hourly rain
rates/totals up to .5" suggesting a low threat for isolated flash
flooding conditions on creeks/streams with average rainfall totals
in the forecast period around 2-3". This should be sufficient to
maintain the Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the windward
side of the mountains below the freezing levels.

Gallina/Pagano

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 12 2018 - 12Z Thu Dec 13 2018

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA...

...Olympic Peninsula...
A strong compact shortwave will enter the Gulf of Alaska with an
enhanced plume of increased moisture by middle of the forecast
period. Strong southwesterly LLJ with 50-60kts of 850mb flow will
direct this TPW plume toward far northwest Washington by 13/00z
and support IVT values around 400 kg/ms, after 06z and support an
additional 1-2" totals through 13/12z. This alone would not
likely be substantial to induce flooding, but in the wake of
strong shortwave trough that crossed Tuesday through early
Wednesday producing rainfall totals of 2-3", rivers should be
running high with some potentially at/near minor flood stage; so
this additional injection poses a risk of continuing the flooding
potential. As such WPC is introducing a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for the area of persistent directed moisture
flux in the Olympic Peninsula.

Additionally, this is the start of a more focused fairly steady
stream of moisture, as this shortwave lifting through lifts north
and leaves the lingering frontal zone/low level moisture plume
focused geographically speaking Thursday and beyond. With that
stated, there does remain some uncertainty to precisely where this boundary/moisture axis core will set up (Olympic peninsula to
Vancouver Island) extending flooding potential even after the end
of the this forecast period.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 042004
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Fri Jan 04 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Fri Jan 04 2019 - 12Z Sat Jan 05 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN
TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

15z Update: Only minor tweaks made to the Marginal Risk area over
the Southeast. The heaviest rainfall rates (approaching 1" in an
hour) are occurring across southern GA into the FL Panhandle...but
this heavier rain is progressive, and Flash Flood Guidance is
higher here, thus not expecting flooding issues. Maintained a
Marginal Risk across portions of northeast GA into SC and central
NC...where rainfall magnitudes may peak around 0.6" in an hour,
and 1-2" in three hours. Overall a pretty low end threat, but
given antecedent rainfall over this area, this rain may cause some
localized flash flooding and increasing stream/river levels.

Considered adding a Marginal Risk across portions of eastern
KY...but will hold off for now. Signal that we should see
convection develop here this afternoon/evening just ahead of the
closed mid/upper low. Steepening mid level lapse rates with this
feature may result in enough instability for locally heavy
rainfall rates, with magnitudes potentially locally approaching
0.7" in an hour, and ~1.5" in a couple hour window.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 05 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 06 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...

...Northern New Jersey into Southern New England...

GOES-16 WV suite depicts a very strong, mature closed cyclone
progressing through the TN Valley with a well defined warm
conveyor belt with active convection advancing through the
Southeast and Carolinas. By the start of the forecast period
05/12z, the wave will have rolled into the Piedmont of VA/NC with
an internal lobe of vorticity and associated speed max rotating
around the base. This will lead to a secondary deepening of a
surface cyclone off the Delmarva and strengthen the western branch
of the warm conveyor to draw deeper, unstable air back north of
the cyclone into a very tight deformation zone from E PA into S
New England. Strong unidirectional flow north of this zone will
lock it into place and tighten the overall gradient supporting a
relatively narrow corridor of enhanced ascent and rainfall
generation. Given the push of the vorticity center east,
mid-level steepening lapse rates will support enhanced instability
of 250-500 J/kg in the warm conveyor with moisture
flux/supporting total PWats to 1.0". Given this moderate rainfall
will occur and given the track of the deep cyclone along the
orientation of the deformation zone is likely to support enhanced
rain totals with some suggestion of embedded convection supporting
rates up to .5"/hr. This leads to Hi-res CAMs and global guidance
hints of overall totals in the 1-2.5" range possible over 24hrs,
the short bursts of up to .5"/hr may trigger the most sensitive
streams for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall especially given
the urban corridor the band of rain is likely to set up across.
The greatest threat within the Marginal Risk appears to be from N
NJ/NYC metro across S CT/RI and Long Island where 7-14 day
rainfall totals are about 200-300% of normal, though the greatest
risk of highest totals are further east from CT to SE MA where the instability/best moisture flux can set up for longer duration.

...Southwest Oregon and Northern California...

Long wave trof advancing across the Gulf of Alaska/Northeast
Pacific contains a strong shortwave toward its base nearing Cape
Mendocino at the start of the time period. This supports a very
deep sub-990mb surface low and strong 50-60kt 850mb southerly flow
across N CA coastal region into the Trinity/Shasta Ranges early.
Total precipitable water is a limiting factor given less than .8"
values are expected, though dynamics and atypically directed
orographic flow will support enhanced rainfall totals. This may
trigger mudslides in adjacent streams in/near fresh burn scars
that may have been shadowed by more typical westerly onshore flow.
Additionally, the shortwave will support cold advection aloft
suggesting 250-400 J/kg of instability even after the main surge
of moisture/flux has advanced eastward toward the Northern
Sierras, likely to support small convection that may have rates up
to .5"/hr, though with this comes lowered snow levels reducing the
overall coverage to fill basins up slope.

By the end of the forecast period, the western portion of the
large scale trof is advancing and with it increased southwesterly
low level flow and return of the tropical moisture plume but only
the leading nose with less than 25kts of west-southwesterly flow
and less than .75" total PWats, this keeps light to occasionally
moderate showers lingering through the remainder of day 2, but
also helps set the stage for Day3.

Gallina

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 042006
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Fri Jan 04 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Fri Jan 04 2019 - 12Z Sat Jan 05 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN
TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

15z Update: Only minor tweaks made to the Marginal Risk area over
the Southeast. The heaviest rainfall rates (approaching 1" in an
hour) are occurring across southern GA into the FL Panhandle...but
this heavier rain is progressive, and Flash Flood Guidance is
higher here, thus not expecting flooding issues. Maintained a
Marginal Risk across portions of northeast GA into SC and central
NC...where rainfall magnitudes may peak around 0.6" in an hour,
and 1-2" in three hours. Overall a pretty low end threat, but
given antecedent rainfall over this area, this rain may cause some
localized flash flooding and increasing stream/river levels.

Considered adding a Marginal Risk across portions of eastern
KY...but will hold off for now. Signal that we should see
convection develop here this afternoon/evening just ahead of the
closed mid/upper low. Steepening mid level lapse rates with this
feature may result in enough instability for locally heavy
rainfall rates, with magnitudes potentially locally approaching
0.7" in an hour, and ~1.5" in a couple hour window.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 05 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 06 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...

...Northern New Jersey into Southern New England...

GOES-16 WV suite depicts a very strong, mature closed cyclone
progressing through the TN Valley with a well defined warm
conveyor belt with active convection advancing through the
Southeast and Carolinas. By the start of the forecast period
05/12z, the wave will have rolled into the Piedmont of VA/NC with
an internal lobe of vorticity and associated speed max rotating
around the base. This will lead to a secondary deepening of a
surface cyclone off the Delmarva and strengthen the western branch
of the warm conveyor to draw deeper, unstable air back north of
the cyclone into a very tight deformation zone from E PA into S
New England. Strong unidirectional flow north of this zone will
lock it into place and tighten the overall gradient supporting a
relatively narrow corridor of enhanced ascent and rainfall
generation. Given the push of the vorticity center east,
mid-level steepening lapse rates will support enhanced instability
of 250-500 J/kg in the warm conveyor with moisture
flux/supporting total PWats to 1.0". Given this moderate rainfall
will occur and given the track of the deep cyclone along the
orientation of the deformation zone is likely to support enhanced
rain totals with some suggestion of embedded convection supporting
rates up to .5"/hr. This leads to Hi-res CAMs and global guidance
hints of overall totals in the 1-2.5" range possible over 24hrs,
the short bursts of up to .5"/hr may trigger the most sensitive
streams for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall especially given
the urban corridor the band of rain is likely to set up across.
The greatest threat within the Marginal Risk appears to be from N
NJ/NYC metro across S CT/RI and Long Island where 7-14 day
rainfall totals are about 200-300% of normal, though the greatest
risk of highest totals are further east from CT to SE MA where the instability/best moisture flux can set up for longer duration.

...Southwest Oregon and Northern California...

Long wave trof advancing across the Gulf of Alaska/Northeast
Pacific contains a strong shortwave toward its base nearing Cape
Mendocino at the start of the time period. This supports a very
deep sub-990mb surface low and strong 50-60kt 850mb southerly flow
across N CA coastal region into the Trinity/Shasta Ranges early.
Total precipitable water is a limiting factor given less than .8"
values are expected, though dynamics and atypically directed
orographic flow will support enhanced rainfall totals. This may
trigger mudslides in adjacent streams in/near fresh burn scars
that may have been shadowed by more typical westerly onshore flow.
Additionally, the shortwave will support cold advection aloft
suggesting 250-400 J/kg of instability even after the main surge
of moisture/flux has advanced eastward toward the Northern
Sierras, likely to support small convection that may have rates up
to .5"/hr, though with this comes lowered snow levels reducing the
overall coverage to fill basins up slope.

By the end of the forecast period, the western portion of the
large scale trof is advancing and with it increased southwesterly
low level flow and return of the tropical moisture plume but only
the leading nose with less than 25kts of west-southwesterly flow
and less than .75" total PWats, this keeps light to occasionally
moderate showers lingering through the remainder of day 2, but
also helps set the stage for Day3.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 06 2019 - 12Z Mon Jan 07 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...

...Southwest Oregon and Northern California...

At the start of Day3 (06/12z), the western portion of the
long-wave trof will be progressing through ushering in a more
zonal flow orientation across the area of concern (within a larger
scale troughiness to the north), and low level winds respond
ushering in the nose of the next moisture plume increasing to
around average (.75") by 00z. A mid to upper level speed max will
advance supporting a subtle shortwave that reaches SW Oregon/N
California after 00z supporting a sub-1000mb surface wave. Global
guidance is quite uncertain on the exact timing/strength of the
wave but ensemble solutions and continuity of a slower, flatter
wave seems appropriate in the larger-scale flow regime which
favors the ECMWF/CMC solutions over the faster/stronger amplified
12z GFS/NAM solutions.

By late Sunday evening, moisture has returned on the westerly flow
with up to 1.0" riding the nose of the 40-50kt LLJ. The compiling
of mass/moisture fairly perpendicular to the coastal ranges
maintain modest rainfall rates/orographic enhancement throughout
the remainder of the forecast period (7/12z) across N CA
(Trinity/Shasta Ranges) trending a bit faster south toward the Bay
Area and Central CA coast. Being so quick on the heels of the
prior system on Day 2, streams may be running high and this
additional rainfall may exacerbate any ongoing high runoff. This
warrants continuing the Marginal Risk with slight southward
expansion both Coastal and Sierra ranges (below 4000 feet).

Gallina/Pagano


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 181936
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Fri Jan 18 2019 - 12Z Sat Jan 19 2019

1500 UTC update

Over the Lower Mississippi Valley...the marginal risk area was
expanded north northeastward into far northeast Arkansas...far
western Tennessee...the Bootheel of Missouri and far western
Kentucky. This was to account for the previous and latest hi res
guidance that showed heavy precipitation potential across these
regions.


...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...Pacific Northwest...
Will maintain a Marginal Risk across far northwest CA into much of
western OR, where 1-3" (locally higher) of rainfall is forecast
today into tonight. An intense area of low pressure will move
northeast well off the coast through the day. A warm front
extending out from this low will spread WAA rainfall into the
pacific Northwest through the period, with the cold front pushing
across late tonight also helping to enhance rainfall rates. Given
the powerful nature of the low, no surprise that wind fields will
be impressive...pushing integrated moisture transport towards the
maximum climatological values for January...with PWs also pushing
2.5 SD above the mean. Thus plenty of moisture and onshore upslope
flow to work with, which combined with the strong isentropic
ascent...will result in a broad swath of steady to at times heavy
rainfall. Instability will be lacking, which in general should
keep rainfall rates from getting too extreme. Would generally
anticipate hourly rainfall to peak around 0.3" for much of the
event...although an increase towards 0.5" can be expected with the
approach of the cold front overnight...especially in more prone
upslope terrain. Some model differences remain...with the general
thought that some of the more widespread heavier totals depicted
by the 0z ARW/NMMB are overdone. Nonetheless, a model consensus
still supports the aforementioned rainfall rates and 1-3" (local
4-5") amounts through the period over much of the Marginal Risk
area (highest in the terrain).


...LA/AR/MS...
Convection is expected to break out across the area by this
evening with a Marginal flash flood threat potentially developing.
In the mid and upper levels will have the approach of strong
shortwave energy and an intense upper jet. Low level moisture
transport will also increase through the day into tonight as 850mb
winds increase to 50+ kts. This strong flow and moisture advection
results in integrated moisture transport values approaching
climatological maximum values for January. PWs will not be quite
as anomalous, but will still be running above the climatological
90th percentile. Will also have an increasing degree of
instability to work with, with MUCAPE rising over 1000 J/KG. Thus
the ingredients are certainly in place for heavy rainfall
rates...the main question will be the duration.

In general the system is expected to be progressive in
nature...with a developing convective line being quick moving,
limiting overall rainfall magnitudes. Flash flood guidance is high
enough that this progressive line alone will probably not cause
much of an issue. However, still some threat that we could see a
period of repeat convective activity overnight. The strong
moisture transport should support some disorganized convective
activity in the evening hours across LA/AR/MS...then as the better
synoptic support approaches we should see a developing convective
line after 06z that will quickly push eastward. If this convective
line mergers with the earlier activity...then we could see just
enough rainfall to begin causing some flooding concerns. For that
reason, along with the favorable moisture transport/instability
fields, will maintain the Marginal Risk.

Some model differences remain...and overall thought many of the
high res models were likely to light with their rainfall
magnitudes...as is the GFS. Think something closer to the heavier
ECMWF and UKMET is more likely. The timing has sped up
some...which has resulted in an eastward shift of the Marginal
Risk.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 19 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 20 2019

...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHT RISK AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
FIRST OVER UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OF GEORGIA/WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC. AS WELL AS THE COASTAL REGIONS
OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

...SOUTHERN OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

An area of low pressure at the surface and a sharpening trough
aloft approaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys at the start of
the forecast period at 12Z on Saturday setting up the possibility
of heavy to excessive rainfall over parts of the region. In
addition to the enhanced moisture transport east of the surface
cyclone, the area will be located near the confluence of a
northern stream speed max and a southern stream speed max up near
250 mb by 20/00Z. This will enhance upper level support at a time
when south to southwest flow at 850 mb is accelerating to between
45 and 60 kts over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee on
Saturday. Recent model trends, especially Hi-res CAM guidance,
supported slightly faster southern stream wave, which reduces the
timing of conditionally unstable air to lift into the Cumberland
Plateau across the afternoon and directing increase low level
moisture flux in the western branch of the warm conveyor (as well
as surface easterly flow in the cool conveyor) to be directed more
into southern Appalachians of Georgia, western North Carolina and
Upstate South Carolina, increasing orographic ascent and increase
in overall rainfall. This area has been quite saturated over the
last few weeks (above average in AHPS anomalies) as well as deeply
saturated according to the water model soil saturation fields. As
such have shifted the Slight Risk to account for this area. While
there remains some modest instability over Central and Eastern
Tennessee, the northward extent into Central and Eastern Kentucky
has been limited and so have trimmed back the Slight to
approximately the Tennessee/Kentucky border but still remains in
the broad Marginal Risk area that extends along the maximized
convergence in the deformation zone from the Central Appalachians
toward Long Island.

In the unstable area ahead of the cold front in Tennessee/N
Alabama, there is a slightly favorable angle in the propagation
vectors to suggest some cross track or southwest to northeast
training across this area supporting areal totals of 1.5-2.5"
possible, supporting a slight southward shift of the Slight Risk
here as well.


...FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

By the start of the forecast period, the strong shortwave has
passed through Vancouver Island favorably orienting deep
unidirectional flow across the Pacific Northwest. The moisture
plume will narrow and maintain the total moisture flux as PWs will
remain in the 1.0-1.25" range advected on a fairly consistent PW
transported on 30-40kts of 850-700mb flow slowly reducing with
time. It is the consistent placement with very slow southward
then northward shift throughout the forecast period into favorable
orography of the Klamath to coastal Shasta/Siskiyou Ranges that
will see a multi-model QPF signal. Hi-Res CAMs along with GFS/00z
ECMWF suite suggest most extreme totals in the 6-8" range though
CMC/UKMET and 12z ECMWF are in the 3-5" range. Increased
confidence allowed for WPC to raise totals to 4-6" with potential
for some hours to reach/exceed .5"/hr rates. The only limiting
factor is local rainfall totals are in slightly below average over
the last few weeks to month time period. However, in coordination
with local forecast offices, this magnitude and duration supports
an increase of Excessive Rainfall to the Slight category for far
SW Oregon to Cape Mendocino in northwest California. A Marginal
Risk encompasses the area and reaches the southern Cascade Range
in southern Oregon.

Gallina/Bann


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 181939
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Fri Jan 18 2019 - 12Z Sat Jan 19 2019

1500 UTC update

Over the Lower Mississippi Valley...the marginal risk area was
expanded north northeastward into far northeast Arkansas...far
western Tennessee...the Bootheel of Missouri and far western
Kentucky. This was to account for the previous and latest hi res
guidance that showed heavy precipitation potential across these
regions.


...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...Pacific Northwest...
Will maintain a Marginal Risk across far northwest CA into much of
western OR, where 1-3" (locally higher) of rainfall is forecast
today into tonight. An intense area of low pressure will move
northeast well off the coast through the day. A warm front
extending out from this low will spread WAA rainfall into the
pacific Northwest through the period, with the cold front pushing
across late tonight also helping to enhance rainfall rates. Given
the powerful nature of the low, no surprise that wind fields will
be impressive...pushing integrated moisture transport towards the
maximum climatological values for January...with PWs also pushing
2.5 SD above the mean. Thus plenty of moisture and onshore upslope
flow to work with, which combined with the strong isentropic
ascent...will result in a broad swath of steady to at times heavy
rainfall. Instability will be lacking, which in general should
keep rainfall rates from getting too extreme. Would generally
anticipate hourly rainfall to peak around 0.3" for much of the
event...although an increase towards 0.5" can be expected with the
approach of the cold front overnight...especially in more prone
upslope terrain. Some model differences remain...with the general
thought that some of the more widespread heavier totals depicted
by the 0z ARW/NMMB are overdone. Nonetheless, a model consensus
still supports the aforementioned rainfall rates and 1-3" (local
4-5") amounts through the period over much of the Marginal Risk
area (highest in the terrain).


...LA/AR/MS...
Convection is expected to break out across the area by this
evening with a Marginal flash flood threat potentially developing.
In the mid and upper levels will have the approach of strong
shortwave energy and an intense upper jet. Low level moisture
transport will also increase through the day into tonight as 850mb
winds increase to 50+ kts. This strong flow and moisture advection
results in integrated moisture transport values approaching
climatological maximum values for January. PWs will not be quite
as anomalous, but will still be running above the climatological
90th percentile. Will also have an increasing degree of
instability to work with, with MUCAPE rising over 1000 J/KG. Thus
the ingredients are certainly in place for heavy rainfall
rates...the main question will be the duration.

In general the system is expected to be progressive in
nature...with a developing convective line being quick moving,
limiting overall rainfall magnitudes. Flash flood guidance is high
enough that this progressive line alone will probably not cause
much of an issue. However, still some threat that we could see a
period of repeat convective activity overnight. The strong
moisture transport should support some disorganized convective
activity in the evening hours across LA/AR/MS...then as the better
synoptic support approaches we should see a developing convective
line after 06z that will quickly push eastward. If this convective
line mergers with the earlier activity...then we could see just
enough rainfall to begin causing some flooding concerns. For that
reason, along with the favorable moisture transport/instability
fields, will maintain the Marginal Risk.

Some model differences remain...and overall thought many of the
high res models were likely to light with their rainfall
magnitudes...as is the GFS. Think something closer to the heavier
ECMWF and UKMET is more likely. The timing has sped up
some...which has resulted in an eastward shift of the Marginal
Risk.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 19 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 20 2019

...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHT RISK AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
FIRST OVER UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OF GEORGIA/WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC. AS WELL AS THE COASTAL REGIONS
OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

...SOUTHERN OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

An area of low pressure at the surface and a sharpening trough
aloft approaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys at the start of
the forecast period at 12Z on Saturday setting up the possibility
of heavy to excessive rainfall over parts of the region. In
addition to the enhanced moisture transport east of the surface
cyclone, the area will be located near the confluence of a
northern stream speed max and a southern stream speed max up near
250 mb by 20/00Z. This will enhance upper level support at a time
when south to southwest flow at 850 mb is accelerating to between
45 and 60 kts over northern Mississippi and western Tennessee on
Saturday. Recent model trends, especially Hi-res CAM guidance,
supported slightly faster southern stream wave, which reduces the
timing of conditionally unstable air to lift into the Cumberland
Plateau across the afternoon and directing increase low level
moisture flux in the western branch of the warm conveyor (as well
as surface easterly flow in the cool conveyor) to be directed more
into southern Appalachians of Georgia, western North Carolina and
Upstate South Carolina, increasing orographic ascent and increase
in overall rainfall. This area has been quite saturated over the
last few weeks (above average in AHPS anomalies) as well as deeply
saturated according to the water model soil saturation fields. As
such have shifted the Slight Risk to account for this area. While
there remains some modest instability over Central and Eastern
Tennessee, the northward extent into Central and Eastern Kentucky
has been limited and so have trimmed back the Slight to
approximately the Tennessee/Kentucky border but still remains in
the broad Marginal Risk area that extends along the maximized
convergence in the deformation zone from the Central Appalachians
toward Long Island.

In the unstable area ahead of the cold front in Tennessee/N
Alabama, there is a slightly favorable angle in the propagation
vectors to suggest some cross track or southwest to northeast
training across this area supporting areal totals of 1.5-2.5"
possible, supporting a slight southward shift of the Slight Risk
here as well.


...FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

By the start of the forecast period, the strong shortwave has
passed through Vancouver Island favorably orienting deep
unidirectional flow across the Pacific Northwest. The moisture
plume will narrow and maintain the total moisture flux as PWs will
remain in the 1.0-1.25" range advected on a fairly consistent PW
transported on 30-40kts of 850-700mb flow slowly reducing with
time. It is the consistent placement with very slow southward
then northward shift throughout the forecast period into favorable
orography of the Klamath to coastal Shasta/Siskiyou Ranges that
will see a multi-model QPF signal. Hi-Res CAMs along with GFS/00z
ECMWF suite suggest most extreme totals in the 6-8" range though
CMC/UKMET and 12z ECMWF are in the 3-5" range. Increased
confidence allowed for WPC to raise totals to 4-6" with potential
for some hours to reach/exceed .5"/hr rates. The only limiting
factor is local rainfall totals are in slightly below average over
the last few weeks to month time period. However, in coordination
with local forecast offices, this magnitude and duration supports
an increase of Excessive Rainfall to the Slight category for far
SW Oregon to Cape Mendocino in northwest California. A Marginal
Risk encompasses the area and reaches the southern Cascade Range
in southern Oregon.

Gallina/Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 20 2019 - 12Z Mon Jan 21 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percnt.

Gallina



Day 1 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 122015
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Tue Feb 12 2019 - 12Z Wed Feb 13 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

The amplifying upper trof over the Middle to Upper Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday will accelerate the associated cold front
eastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast.
The developing pre-frontal line of heavy rains is expected to
remain well defined through 0000 UTC Wed as it pushes eastward
through the Mid to Upper OH Valley...Upper TN Valley and into the
Southern Appalachians in a region of favorable right entrance
region jet dynamics and above average pw values of 1 to 2+
standard deviations above the mean. A big detriment to very heavy
rainfall amounts and the flash flooding threat will be the
expected quick eastward movement of the front today across these
regions. However...given the overall favorable set up...hourly
rainfall rates of .50-1"+ possible along this line across eastern
TN..northeast MS...northern AL..northern GA...far southwest NC and
far Upstate SC.

The hi res guidance is lighter than the GFS...EC...CMC gem and
UKMET across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in the 0000 to 0600 UTC
time frame when precip may be heaviest with the cold frontal
passage. These models were followed with .50"+ amounts during
that period...which may produce isolated runoff issues over the
lower ffg regions of the urban corridor from DC/Baltimore to
Philadelphia and nearby DE/NJ.

Petersen/Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 13 2019 - 12Z Thu Feb 14 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

....California...

...Northern California...
At the start of the forecast period (13/12z), a highly elongated
positive tilt trof is separating from energy crossing the Northern
Rockies supporting a surface cyclone west of Cape Mendocino.
Along the southeast interface of the trof a deep plume of moisture
and stacked unidirectional flow support a strong atmospheric river
into the NW California coast. The plume is directed slowly
southward focused with greatest moisture flux along the frontal
zone toward the Bay area around 14/00z. Concurrently, strong
height-falls out of the Southeast Gulf of Alaska, sharpen the trof
but also re-consolidates the shortwave feature and redirects
increased southerly return flow up the Northern California coast
redirecting increased moisture (TPW to 1.25") and flux for a
secondary surge of heavy rainfall into NW California in the
overnight hours. As such there is a multi-model signal for 4-6"
totals in the Coastal Ranges from Cape Mendocino to the north Bay
counties. Rates over .5"/hr are likely and given recent burn
scars, there is sufficient suggestion for excessive rainfall,
potentially flashy at times...and so have maintained a Slight Risk
for this area.

...Central and Southern California...
Aforementioned surface convergence boundary slipping southward
through 14/00z continues with broad southerly flow in advance of
the convergence zone supporting southerly upslope across the
Western Transverse Ranges of S California. Some surface level
easterly flow, may support some dry air bleeding into the area
from the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the High Deserts, but the
magnitude of the deep moisture plume (already well detected in
offshore in microwave imagery) is very strong with total PWATs at
the coast near 1.25" and 20-30kts of 850mb southerlies shifting to
40-50kt southwesterly toward 06z focusing along the Santa Lucia
range, with some Hi-Res CAMS (ARW/NAM-Conest) supporting 3-5" on
the southwest facing terrain where orographics/flux are highly
anomalous, while this may be a bit overdone, it is not out of the
realm of possibilities and have included the area in the Slight
Risk.

The deepest atmospheric river moisture with Total PWATs nearing
1.5" or greater remains around 30N but has been leaking northward,
and some moisture is feeding northward into the Transverse and by
06-12z on the 14th, is feeding nearly perpendicular into the
Palomar Ranges of far Southern California, this is slightly with
the 12z GFS and given the 12z ECWMF slightly faster trend, WPC has
increased totals here as well, leading to a southward expansion of
the Slight Risk to the Mexico border, though in this area greater
rainfall rates/totals will occur after 14/12z into the Day 3
period where a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall.

Gallina

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 122017
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Tue Feb 12 2019 - 12Z Wed Feb 13 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

The amplifying upper trof over the Middle to Upper Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday will accelerate the associated cold front
eastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast.
The developing pre-frontal line of heavy rains is expected to
remain well defined through 0000 UTC Wed as it pushes eastward
through the Mid to Upper OH Valley...Upper TN Valley and into the
Southern Appalachians in a region of favorable right entrance
region jet dynamics and above average pw values of 1 to 2+
standard deviations above the mean. A big detriment to very heavy
rainfall amounts and the flash flooding threat will be the
expected quick eastward movement of the front today across these
regions. However...given the overall favorable set up...hourly
rainfall rates of .50-1"+ possible along this line across eastern
TN..northeast MS...northern AL..northern GA...far southwest NC and
far Upstate SC.

The hi res guidance is lighter than the GFS...EC...CMC gem and
UKMET across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in the 0000 to 0600 UTC
time frame when precip may be heaviest with the cold frontal
passage. These models were followed with .50"+ amounts during
that period...which may produce isolated runoff issues over the
lower ffg regions of the urban corridor from DC/Baltimore to
Philadelphia and nearby DE/NJ.

Petersen/Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 13 2019 - 12Z Thu Feb 14 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

....California...

...Northern California...
At the start of the forecast period (13/12z), a highly elongated
positive tilt trof is separating from energy crossing the Northern
Rockies supporting a surface cyclone west of Cape Mendocino.
Along the southeast interface of the trof a deep plume of moisture
and stacked unidirectional flow support a strong atmospheric river
into the NW California coast. The plume is directed slowly
southward focused with greatest moisture flux along the frontal
zone toward the Bay area around 14/00z. Concurrently, strong
height-falls out of the Southeast Gulf of Alaska, sharpen the trof
but also re-consolidates the shortwave feature and redirects
increased southerly return flow up the Northern California coast
redirecting increased moisture (TPW to 1.25") and flux for a
secondary surge of heavy rainfall into NW California in the
overnight hours. As such there is a multi-model signal for 4-6"
totals in the Coastal Ranges from Cape Mendocino to the north Bay
counties. Rates over .5"/hr are likely and given recent burn
scars, there is sufficient suggestion for excessive rainfall,
potentially flashy at times...and so have maintained a Slight Risk
for this area.

...Central and Southern California...
Aforementioned surface convergence boundary slipping southward
through 14/00z continues with broad southerly flow in advance of
the convergence zone supporting southerly upslope across the
Western Transverse Ranges of S California. Some surface level
easterly flow, may support some dry air bleeding into the area
from the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the High Deserts, but the
magnitude of the deep moisture plume (already well detected in
offshore in microwave imagery) is very strong with total PWATs at
the coast near 1.25" and 20-30kts of 850mb southerlies shifting to
40-50kt southwesterly toward 06z focusing along the Santa Lucia
range, with some Hi-Res CAMS (ARW/NAM-Conest) supporting 3-5" on
the southwest facing terrain where orographics/flux are highly
anomalous, while this may be a bit overdone, it is not out of the
realm of possibilities and have included the area in the Slight
Risk.

The deepest atmospheric river moisture with Total PWATs nearing
1.5" or greater remains around 30N but has been leaking northward,
and some moisture is feeding northward into the Transverse and by
06-12z on the 14th, is feeding nearly perpendicular into the
Palomar Ranges of far Southern California, this is slightly with
the 12z GFS and given the 12z ECWMF slightly faster trend, WPC has
increased totals here as well, leading to a southward expansion of
the Slight Risk to the Mexico border, though in this area greater
rainfall rates/totals will occur after 14/12z into the Day 3
period where a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 14 2019 - 12Z Fri Feb 15 2019

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...

...Southern California...
At the start of the forecast period (14/12z), the elongated
shortwave off the Northern California coast is already in process
of being kicked quickly eastward due to stronger northern stream
height-falls. This acceleration helps to tighten the overall
height pattern as well as directing the tropical moisture
plume/atmospheric river into a tighter, deeper unidirectional
flow. Weak instability of 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE directed in this
plume with record or near seasonal record moisture should support
low topped convection embedded in moisture flux/plume. Recent 12z
GFS and ECWMF support near 1.4-1.6" total PWATs at San Diego,
(NKX), which would the seasonal record and 6 STDev above normal.
This along with flow increasing to 40-50kts at the 850-700mb
level, support near record IVT values of 750-800 kg/ms directed
nearly orthogonal to the Palomar Range and other North-South
ranges of Southern California. There is solid model consensus,
though the 12z ECWMF did pick up pace relative to prior runs,
allowing for increased moisture flux. Good areal consensus of
3-4" in S CA support maintaining of the Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall.

...Arizona/S Virgin River Valley...
The strong moisture flux will continue across the High Deserts of
CA, though given the drier inland values, much of the heavy
rainfall should start to evaporate across SE CA. However, low
level moisture will quickly advance northward and further
moistening of the low levels, will continue as the plume/high
moisture flux continues east into AZ. Shortwave/height-falls and
strong flow, will support some increased orographic ascent through
the lower slopes of the Mogollon and as the total PWATs reach
1.0-1.25" (also near record) after 00z, there is a strong model
signal (increasing with 12z runs) of 1-2" across the Lower Virgin
River Valley of SW UT/SE NV as well as into terrain Southwest of
the Coconino/San Francisco Plateau especially across the Hualpai,
Bradshaw, Mazatzac toward the Pinal Mountain Ranges. There should
be no instability left with the heavy rainfall driven through
upglide process in the remaining atmospheric plume. As the low
level moistens, the strength of ascent and amount of moisture with
some orographic enhancement across a relative short duration of
12-18 hours for up to 2", a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
was introduced to handle the potential for flooding through
15/12z.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 221458
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
957 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Day 1
Valid 15Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 12Z Sat Feb 23 2019

...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL
AND TN...

15z update: Little change in the overall axis and meteorological
setup with respect to current High Risk. However, recent trends
in Goes-16, Regional RADAR mosaic, and surface/VWP observations
suggest greater moisture flux/convergence upstream as far west as
extreme Eastern TX. Hi-Res CAMs particularly the HRRR and
ARW/ARW2/NMMB also indicate this increase in convective activity
this afternoon with training along the 850mb boundary, eventually
training into areas already affected overnight in SE AR and N MS.
While, antecedent conditions are a bit drier over E TX, N LA, SW
AR, this growing QPF signal and deep moisture flux (and multiple
rounds this morning and overnight tonight) support a westward
expansion of the Slight Risk to the TX/LA border. Additionally,
the High Risk was pulled westward, as well, clipping SE AR, where
there have already been active flash flooding conditions. The
Moderate Risk was pulled back to the northern row of parishes in
Central LA and counties in SE AR.

Gallina


Continued greater vertical convective activity on the southern
edge of the boundary has reduced the modest overrunning precip
shield into TN, but still remains fairly efficient.

---Prior Discussion---
A continued wet pattern across portions of MS/AL/TN will result in
a significant, and potentially life-threatening, flash flooding
threat through tonight. A HIGH risk of excessive rainfall remains
in effect for portions of northern MS into northwest AL and south
central TN. A MDT risk surrounds this extending across much of TN,
far southern KY and far southwest VA. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms are likely across this region almost continuously
through tonight, although two periods of heavier activity appear
probable...one this morning into early afternoon...and an
additional round later tonight into early Saturday.

Convection is increasing in intensity early this Friday morning
across MS. This is likely driven by the approach of an upper jet
streak, placing the region in the favorable right entrance region.
This is resulting in a gradual increase in diffluence aloft, and
also helping tighten the low level confluent flow. Given the
nearly stationary convergence axis, would anticipate we see some
training this morning into early afternoon across portions of
northern MS into northern AL and far southern TN. Will likely be a
pretty narrow corridor where the most intense rainfall and thus
greatest flash flood risk will persist this morning. Some
uncertainty on this exact axis, however it will likely occur over
areas that are already saturated. Thus flash flooding, some of
which could be significant, is likely with this activity through
the morning and early afternoon hours.

By this afternoon the upper jet passes by off to the east, which
should decrease diffluence aloft, with the lower level convergence
axis also forecast to become less defined. Thus, while showers and
embedded convection are still likely across the High and MDT risk
areas, the intensity and organization may take a notch downward.
Any lull will be rather short lived however, as we see additional
robust convective activity develop overnight. This activity will
have much stronger low/mid level moisture transport to work with
as southerly flow really ramps up. The region will also begin to
feel the effect of height falls associated with the strong trough
over the Plains, to go along with the increased isentropic
lift...thus would expect the coverage of heavy rains to be more
widespread than what we see earlier today. Given the strong
southerly flow, this activity may tend to move a but more
progressively off to the north compared to the earlier
convection...however would still expect some backbuilding into the
southerly flow resulting in a training threat. Even without
training, rainfall rates will likely be high enough to cause flash
flooding, some of which could be significant in nature, given the
very wet antecedent conditions over northern MS into central TN
and southern KY.

Model agreement was pretty good with the overnight guidance.
Overall a consensus of the 0z HREF members and HRRR seemed to form
a good middle ground solution for QPF through the period. Rainfall
of 2-4" appears likely across the High risk area, with localized
higher totals of 4-6" a possibility. The trend in the guidance was
to focus the heaviest rains a bit further southwest of our
previous forecast. For that reason had to expand the High risk
back to the southwest into more of MS, and was also able to cut
back a bit on the southeastern extent off the higher risk. Some
uncertainty with the northern and eastern extent of the higher
flooding risk. Was a bit liberal with the northern extent of the
Slight Risk, as think the high res models may end up being too dry
on the northern edge of the rain shield. Generally confined the
MDT risk area to those locations that have saturated soil
conditions and have the best chance of exceeding 1.5" of
additional rainfall, with the threat tapering to a Slight and
Marginal Risk outside of these areas.

Chenard



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 23 2019 - 12Z Sun Feb 24 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...

Scattered to widespread rain will once again impact portions of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee/Ohio Valley and the
Central Appalachians this weekend as mid-level low spins up and
lifts a front through the region, from west to east. This region
has been hit with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall within the
past 1-2 weeks and is already experiencing booth areal and river
flooding. Any additional rainfall over this sensitive areas will
be problematic.

A strong low-level jet of 50 to 65 knots will continuously draw in
Gulf moisture, which will help maintain precipitation efficiency
especially over northern Kentucky where max values of 2-2.25
inches are forecast. The expected PW values of 1.5-1.75 inches
will be nearing 3.5/4 standard deviations above normal for late
February. The greatest threat is expected to be across northern of
northern and eastern KY into southern WV, where three hour flash
flood guidance values are as low as 0.25 inch. There is some
latitudinal model spread on the placement of the highest rainfall
amounts, and the synoptic system should become more progressive
with time. If there is better agreement on rainfall amounts,
and/or track is further south (similar to the 00Z CMC) than a
Moderate Risk may needed.

Campbell




Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 24 2019 - 12Z Mon Feb 25 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


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FOUS30 KWBC 280749
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 28 2019 - 12Z Fri Mar 01 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 131911
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Mar 13 2019 - 12Z Thu Mar 14 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...

1530z Update:
Only minor tweaks made to the risk areas with this update. The
going forecast looks in good shape, with nothing seen in
observations, or the 12z suite of HREF members, that warrants any
significant adjustments to the Slight Risk area.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley...
As a strong closed mid-level low tracks from southeast CO into the
central plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, surface low pressure
will be deepening rapidly and crossing the same region as it
advances out of the central Plains and toward the Upper Midwest.
An associated cold front meanwhile will be quickly advancing east
across the central/southern Plains and toward the Lower MS Valley
by Wednesday evening. The front will then advance toward the
western TN Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday. Ahead of
this front will be a very strong 50 to 70 knot south-southwest
low-level jet which will be aiding in the transport of 1.50 to
1.75 inch precipitable water values (which is between two and
three standard deviations above the mean) north from the Gulf of
Mexico and across the Lower MS Valley into the western TN Valley.
The latest hires model guidance continues to show a notably uptick
in instability transport too across the Lower MS Valley as the
nose of the moist low level jet arrives, and this coupled with
strong large scale dynamic forcing/divergence aloft should result
in a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms that initially
focuses over the southern Plains, but then intensifies farther
east toward the Lower MS Valley as the convection encounters a
stronger instability axis with MUCAPE values of locally 1000+ j/kg
over areas of southern AR, LA and MS. As the cold front sweeps
across the region Wednesday night, the convection should shift
into the western TN Valley going into the early morning hours of
Thursday -- though likely losing some vitality between 06-12Z Thu
as the stronger deep-layer forcing (left exit region upper
divergence and dpva) lifts n-ne into the mid MS Valley and western
OH Valley.

The Slight Risk area (covering northern LA, southeast AR, northern
MS and western TN) reflects the area most likely to see the most
organized convection and heaviest rainfall amounts where totals of
as much as 2 to 4 inches can be expected along with locally
heavier amounts. This is consistent with a multi-model blend, but
with somewhat heavier amounts suggested given such strong moisture
transport profiles. Also, the convection may well tend to organize
a bit farther south into the nose of the moisture/instability
transport compared to the global model consensus, and the latest
WPC QPF and ERO reflect these concerns. Given the expectation of
impressively high rainfall rates (as much as 2+ inches within 3
hours) and the wet antecedent conditions, there will be concerns
for locally enhanced runoff problems and flash flooding.


...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Deep moisture wrapping around a strong mid-level and surface
system tracking from southeast CO into the central Plains through
Wednesday and Wednesday night is expected to combine with
sufficient elevated instability for an area of heavy rain and a
few thunderstorms over a portion of the snowpack that is in place
from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. There remains
good model agreement with the evolution of the system. Ahead of
the associated surface low center, a 40 to 50+ knot east-southeast
low-level jet will be transporting plenty of moisture with
precipitable water values of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, which is between
three and four standard deviations above the mean. This coupled
with weak elevated instability with MUCAPE values of as much as
200-500 j/kg and strong deep layer forcing aloft ahead of the
mid-level low center will result in heavy rainfall rates that may
reach as high as 0.30 to 0.50 inches/hr.

Storm total rainfall amounts of as much as 1.5 to 3 inches will be
possible with locally heavier amounts, and especially along an
axis from eastern NE up across southeast SD and possibly far
southwest MN given the anticipated multiple rounds of activity in
such a highly-difluent upper level pattern. This would include the
initial warm frontal, more west-to-east bands early this morning,
followed by multiple, more south-to-north oriented
showers/embedded thunderstorms later today and tonight ahead of
the deepening low pressure system. As colder air comes in around
the back side of the surface low, some areas will be experiencing
a changeover of rain to snow, but prior to this occurring, the
combination of heavy rainfall on a dense and gradually melting
snowpack will result in some flooding concerns. As a result, a
Marginal Risk remains in place from areas of mainly eastern NE,
eastern SD, western IA and a large portion of MN to address the
anticipated runoff concerns.

Hurley/Orrison



Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 14 2019 - 12Z Fri Mar 15 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...Ohio Valley...
A very strong mid-level closed low will be crossing out of N KS
into SE NEB toward the start of the Day 2 period (14/12z)
supporting a 983mb surface low in SW IA. Downstream into the Ohio
Valley, the main negative tilt shortwave will have lifted north
and the excellent 250mb diffluence aloft (70-80 degrees) will be
closing to 30-40 degrees and the filling process for the deep
cyclone will be starting. Still, the remaining southwesterly low
level flow will continue to be very strong supporting 50-65kts of
850mb flow and given the strong flux, is drawing deep moisture and
instability to maintain ongoing convection across the Central Ohio
River Valley (SE IND/NW KY). As the upper level pattern begins to
flatten by midday, low level flow will support some WAA and
increasing instability nosing up to 250-500 J/kg but also a broad
area of increased low level confluence supporting moisture
convergence to support additional convection uptick in the
mid-afternoon evening hours. Given the strong wind speeds and
modest low level turning, individual cells may have sufficient
rotation to support slowing forward propagation vectors allowing
for increased rainfall totals as suggested by multiple-model
signal of 1.25-1.5" totals falling in less than 3hrs...with
greatest risk across the SE IND into S OH, N KY where Flash Flood
Guidance is lowest. Storms that develop ahead of the cold front
across N IND/N OH also will cross dormant ground conditions with
lower FFG values and with reduced moisture/instability should have
reduced coverage, but still not a non-zero threat for isolated
excessive rainfall conditions.

...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians...
Further south, as the wave lifts away further north, upper level
flow will be reduced relatively with greater depth of
unidirectional flow, especially after 21z. The cold front/surface
forcing mechanism will also start to align with the mean flow too.
Southeasterly return flow of the Gulf will become increasingly
confluent across Eastern MS/W AL toward 00z, increasing low level
moisture convergence. Day-time heating and this influx will
increase instability steadily with 1000-1500 J/kg expected. The
deep 850-5H flow will align in a narrow plume of moisture steadily
increasing Total PWATs in the vicinity of 1.5", pushing 2.5 Std
Dev and along with the 30-40kt flow, supports solid flux. A
secondary shortwave and associated upper level jet speed max that
is currently crossing the Great Basin into the Four Corners
region, will emerge supporting broad DPVA across the lower MS
Valley around 00z sparking new convection along the stalling
frontal zone. Convection that will develop should be steadily
increase in coverage and be highly efficient with the potential
for rainfall rates of 1.5"/hr. The upper level jet/shortwave
pulse will increase cell motions should be moving quite fast
limiting the overall totals though there is some growing signal
for a swath of 1.5-2" totals in the 00-12z time period across AL
into NW GA. Flash Flood Guidance values are fairly high and would
suggest that these rainfall values could be handled. This was
confirmed through coordination with local forecast offices, and as
such will maintain a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across
this area expanding into the Southern Appalachians.

Southerly low level moisture flux will be veering late evening
Thursday into early Friday with 850mb winds increasing from 30kts
to 40/45kts and total PWats increasing from less than 1",
maximizing at 1.5" between 03-09z. This will provide
moderate/strong orographic ascent mainly on SW facing topography.
Strong 2-2.5" multi-model 24hr QPF signal provides good confidence
in this scenario, however, just like upstream, this should be
handled fairly well given recent ground conditions and is best
covered by a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall at this time.

Gallina

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 131912
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Mar 13 2019 - 12Z Thu Mar 14 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...

1530z Update:
Only minor tweaks made to the risk areas with this update. The
going forecast looks in good shape, with nothing seen in
observations, or the 12z suite of HREF members, that warrants any
significant adjustments to the Slight Risk area.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley...
As a strong closed mid-level low tracks from southeast CO into the
central plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, surface low pressure
will be deepening rapidly and crossing the same region as it
advances out of the central Plains and toward the Upper Midwest.
An associated cold front meanwhile will be quickly advancing east
across the central/southern Plains and toward the Lower MS Valley
by Wednesday evening. The front will then advance toward the
western TN Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday. Ahead of
this front will be a very strong 50 to 70 knot south-southwest
low-level jet which will be aiding in the transport of 1.50 to
1.75 inch precipitable water values (which is between two and
three standard deviations above the mean) north from the Gulf of
Mexico and across the Lower MS Valley into the western TN Valley.
The latest hires model guidance continues to show a notably uptick
in instability transport too across the Lower MS Valley as the
nose of the moist low level jet arrives, and this coupled with
strong large scale dynamic forcing/divergence aloft should result
in a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms that initially
focuses over the southern Plains, but then intensifies farther
east toward the Lower MS Valley as the convection encounters a
stronger instability axis with MUCAPE values of locally 1000+ j/kg
over areas of southern AR, LA and MS. As the cold front sweeps
across the region Wednesday night, the convection should shift
into the western TN Valley going into the early morning hours of
Thursday -- though likely losing some vitality between 06-12Z Thu
as the stronger deep-layer forcing (left exit region upper
divergence and dpva) lifts n-ne into the mid MS Valley and western
OH Valley.

The Slight Risk area (covering northern LA, southeast AR, northern
MS and western TN) reflects the area most likely to see the most
organized convection and heaviest rainfall amounts where totals of
as much as 2 to 4 inches can be expected along with locally
heavier amounts. This is consistent with a multi-model blend, but
with somewhat heavier amounts suggested given such strong moisture
transport profiles. Also, the convection may well tend to organize
a bit farther south into the nose of the moisture/instability
transport compared to the global model consensus, and the latest
WPC QPF and ERO reflect these concerns. Given the expectation of
impressively high rainfall rates (as much as 2+ inches within 3
hours) and the wet antecedent conditions, there will be concerns
for locally enhanced runoff problems and flash flooding.


...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Deep moisture wrapping around a strong mid-level and surface
system tracking from southeast CO into the central Plains through
Wednesday and Wednesday night is expected to combine with
sufficient elevated instability for an area of heavy rain and a
few thunderstorms over a portion of the snowpack that is in place
from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. There remains
good model agreement with the evolution of the system. Ahead of
the associated surface low center, a 40 to 50+ knot east-southeast
low-level jet will be transporting plenty of moisture with
precipitable water values of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, which is between
three and four standard deviations above the mean. This coupled
with weak elevated instability with MUCAPE values of as much as
200-500 j/kg and strong deep layer forcing aloft ahead of the
mid-level low center will result in heavy rainfall rates that may
reach as high as 0.30 to 0.50 inches/hr.

Storm total rainfall amounts of as much as 1.5 to 3 inches will be
possible with locally heavier amounts, and especially along an
axis from eastern NE up across southeast SD and possibly far
southwest MN given the anticipated multiple rounds of activity in
such a highly-difluent upper level pattern. This would include the
initial warm frontal, more west-to-east bands early this morning,
followed by multiple, more south-to-north oriented
showers/embedded thunderstorms later today and tonight ahead of
the deepening low pressure system. As colder air comes in around
the back side of the surface low, some areas will be experiencing
a changeover of rain to snow, but prior to this occurring, the
combination of heavy rainfall on a dense and gradually melting
snowpack will result in some flooding concerns. As a result, a
Marginal Risk remains in place from areas of mainly eastern NE,
eastern SD, western IA and a large portion of MN to address the
anticipated runoff concerns.

Hurley/Orrison



Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 14 2019 - 12Z Fri Mar 15 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...Ohio Valley...
A very strong mid-level closed low will be crossing out of N KS
into SE NEB toward the start of the Day 2 period (14/12z)
supporting a 983mb surface low in SW IA. Downstream into the Ohio
Valley, the main negative tilt shortwave will have lifted north
and the excellent 250mb diffluence aloft (70-80 degrees) will be
closing to 30-40 degrees and the filling process for the deep
cyclone will be starting. Still, the remaining southwesterly low
level flow will continue to be very strong supporting 50-65kts of
850mb flow and given the strong flux, is drawing deep moisture and
instability to maintain ongoing convection across the Central Ohio
River Valley (SE IND/NW KY). As the upper level pattern begins to
flatten by midday, low level flow will support some WAA and
increasing instability nosing up to 250-500 J/kg but also a broad
area of increased low level confluence supporting moisture
convergence to support additional convection uptick in the
mid-afternoon evening hours. Given the strong wind speeds and
modest low level turning, individual cells may have sufficient
rotation to support slowing forward propagation vectors allowing
for increased rainfall totals as suggested by multiple-model
signal of 1.25-1.5" totals falling in less than 3hrs...with
greatest risk across the SE IND into S OH, N KY where Flash Flood
Guidance is lowest. Storms that develop ahead of the cold front
across N IND/N OH also will cross dormant ground conditions with
lower FFG values and with reduced moisture/instability should have
reduced coverage, but still not a non-zero threat for isolated
excessive rainfall conditions.

...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians...
Further south, as the wave lifts away further north, upper level
flow will be reduced relatively with greater depth of
unidirectional flow, especially after 21z. The cold front/surface
forcing mechanism will also start to align with the mean flow too.
Southeasterly return flow of the Gulf will become increasingly
confluent across Eastern MS/W AL toward 00z, increasing low level
moisture convergence. Day-time heating and this influx will
increase instability steadily with 1000-1500 J/kg expected. The
deep 850-5H flow will align in a narrow plume of moisture steadily
increasing Total PWATs in the vicinity of 1.5", pushing 2.5 Std
Dev and along with the 30-40kt flow, supports solid flux. A
secondary shortwave and associated upper level jet speed max that
is currently crossing the Great Basin into the Four Corners
region, will emerge supporting broad DPVA across the lower MS
Valley around 00z sparking new convection along the stalling
frontal zone. Convection that will develop should be steadily
increase in coverage and be highly efficient with the potential
for rainfall rates of 1.5"/hr. The upper level jet/shortwave
pulse will increase cell motions should be moving quite fast
limiting the overall totals though there is some growing signal
for a swath of 1.5-2" totals in the 00-12z time period across AL
into NW GA. Flash Flood Guidance values are fairly high and would
suggest that these rainfall values could be handled. This was
confirmed through coordination with local forecast offices, and as
such will maintain a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across
this area expanding into the Southern Appalachians.

Southerly low level moisture flux will be veering late evening
Thursday into early Friday with 850mb winds increasing from 30kts
to 40/45kts and total PWats increasing from less than 1",
maximizing at 1.5" between 03-09z. This will provide
moderate/strong orographic ascent mainly on SW facing topography.
Strong 2-2.5" multi-model 24hr QPF signal provides good confidence
in this scenario, however, just like upstream, this should be
handled fairly well given recent ground conditions and is best
covered by a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall at this time.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 15 2019 - 12Z Sat Mar 16 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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------------=_1552762909-1983-19760
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FOUS30 KWBC 161901
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Mar 16 2019 - 12Z Sun Mar 17 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 17 2019 - 12Z Mon Mar 18 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
5 percent.

Gallina


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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------------=_1552767975-1983-19770
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FOUS30 KWBC 162026
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Mar 16 2019 - 12Z Sun Mar 17 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 17 2019 - 12Z Mon Mar 18 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
5 percent.

Gallina



Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 18 2019 - 12Z Tue Mar 19 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina




Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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------------=_1553971384-1972-3812
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FOUS30 KWBC 301842
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Mar 30 2019 - 12Z Sun Mar 31 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IN AND FAR NORTHERN KY INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OH...

1600 UTC Update...
Only minor tweaks made to the Day 1 ERO, based largely on observational/mesoanalysis trends, recent high-res CAM guidance
(including HREF exceedance probabilities), updates to the
antecedent soil moisture (FFG and the latest soil saturation
analysis from the national water model). Maintained the Slight
Risk area, with a slight bulge to the southern flank (northern KY)
where the axis of favorable thermodynamics per the latest RAP
(MUCAPEs 500-1000 j/kg and PWs (1-1.25") coincide lower FFGs
(1-1.5" in 3 hours).

Hurley

Previous discussion below..

Will upgrade to a narrow Slight Risk axis stretching from southern
IN and far northern KY, northeastward into southern/central OH.
Conditions appear favorable for a swath of 1-3" of rain across
this corridor. Synoptic forcing will be quite strong, with the
approach of a robust mid level shortwave, and dual left exit/right
entrance upper jet streak dynamics. 850mb moisture transport
begins to increase across the Slight Risk area by mid morning.
This corridor of enhanced moisture transport persists through the
afternoon hours...with the digging northern stream wave
interacting with the southern stream helping stall the eastward
progression. This persistence of the low level moisture transport
axis, along with continued favorable mid/upper level
synoptics...supports a period of repeat convective activity into
the afternoon hours. Instability is not great, but should see just
enough make it north to support some embedded heavier convective
cells within the broader shield of showers. The limited
instability may make it tough to exceed hourly totals of 1"...but
given the duration of the event, would think some 2-3" event
totals are probable. The slight risk follows the moderate to high
2" neighborhood probabilities from the 0z HREF pretty closely.
This same corridor is also where we see the overlap of modest
instability with the stronger and persistent 850mb moisture
transport axis. Given the likelihood of persistent shower activity
and embedded heavier convective cells across this area...think
some flash flood concerns may develop...warranting a Slight Risk.

North and east of the Slight risk area, instability will be
lacking, which should keep rainfall rates lower and thus the
resultant flash flood risk also lower. Still looking at 1-2" here,
and thus will continue to carry a Marginal Risk. South of the
Slight Risk area, instability will be greater, resulting in more
robust convection and higher instantaneous rainfall rates.
However, these cells should be quicker moving and more progressive
in nature. Thus think the flash flood threat will generally remain
low.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 31 2019 - 12Z Mon Apr 01 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE...

A progressive cold front is poised to cross the east coast Sunday
through Sunday night, with warm moist air working north ahead of
the boundary. This will result in a short duration of warm
advection and increased temperatures leading to the potential for
snow melt across portions of the southern flanks and points
southward of the White and Blue mountain ranges in New Hampshire
into Maine. Precipitable waters values will peak very close to one
inch will be transported north aided by 40-50+ knot low level
southwesterly flow. While there will not no instability to work
with rainfall will come through gentle to moderate upglide
enhanced by orographic ascent in the mountains suggesting at most
moderate rain rates ahead and along the front. Rain rates up to
.25" perhaps tickling .5"/hr in the greatest slopes/orographic
moisture convergence, yet the progressive nature of the frontal
zone will limit areal average totals in the .5-.75" range, perhaps
as great as 1" in the best orographic regions of the Whites and
Blues.

These rates/totals alone are not much of a excessive rainfall
threat, yet ample snowpack storing from 4-8" of water equivalence
(per NOAA NOHRSC) across the southern flanks and points south (but
about 20-30 miles north of I-95 in Down East ME) and even higher
(greater than 12") in highest peaks of the Whites. Rainfall will
be more efficient in melting than the limited warmer air
temperatures which may lead to some faster small stream rises. In
coordination with local forecast offices in Gray and Caribou,
Maine, maintained a Marginal Risk, but extended it back into NH to
encompass the Southern flanks of the White Range, given similar
environmental conditions as further east and relatively greater
snowpack/water equivalent.

Gallina/Pagano


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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FOUS30 KWBC 020035
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 PM EDT Mon Apr 01 2019

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Apr 02 2019 - 12Z Tue Apr 02 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A developing coastal low will bring steady to locally heavy
rainfall into portions of GA and SC between 06z and 12z Tuesday
morning. Still some model spread, and appears the most likely
scenario keeps the coastal front and better convective activity
offshore through 12z...keeping rainfall totals generally at or
below 1" over land. However, certainly some chance the coastal
front and more intense convective cells push into the SC coast. In
this scenario, current guidance suggests maximum 6 hour rainfall
totals would be in the 2-3" range in localized areas. If this were
to occur, some flooding concerns could develop in the more
susceptible coastal urban locations...although even this scenario
is unlikely to see flash flood guidance exceeded. Thus will
continue with no Risk areas outlined within the day 1 outlook.

Chenard



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 02 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 03 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINA COAST...

...Carolina Coast...
Overnight discussion: A developing surface low off the northeast
FL coast will lift north and east off the Carolina Coast Tuesday
into Wednesday morning. As a mid-level trough pivots across the
southeast, eventually becoming negatively tilted with shortwave
energy rounding the axis, the surface low will quickly deepen.
With strong surface convergence, moisture transport of high
precipitable water (1.5 inches) along a baroclinic boundary and
ample divergence aloft, anticipate an enhancement of precipitation
totals along the low track. Based on the latest model guidance
and ensemble suites, the current forecast keeps the low just off
the coast of SC before riding along the OBX of NC as it lifts off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The exact placement of the low track will
inevitably impact overall QPF totals and rain rates as instability
(1000-2000 J/kg) should remain off SC coast with the axis moving
into the OBX. Also, mid-level energy moving through the
aforementioned trough may aid in higher rainfall amounts across
inland portions of SC; something to watch. Models have generally
come into better agreement in terms of QPF/low track, apart from
the NAM/GFS. A non-NCEP model blend was incorporated with the
general swath of higher QPF aligned with a blend of the
CMC/EC/UKMET which have shown a bit more consistency. The NAM is
a bit too far inland and the GFS a bit too far out to sea (with an
apparent feedback issue within the model output).

Based on the aforementioned ingredients, it appears the areal
average precipitation will range from 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts expected, especially along the NC coast associated
with convection. Rain rates associated with these
showers/thunderstorms may exceed 2 inches per hour. Given the
region is within the coastal plain and the system is quite
progressive, we felt a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall should
suffice. However, if the track moves farther inland and/or the
interaction with upper level energy helps to generate better
forcing inland across SC, then expect an increase in QPF and thus
an expansion of the Marginal Risk area, possibly upgrading to a
Slight.

18Z Update:
The forecast track and intensity of the expected coastal low on
Tuesday/Tuesday night is very close to the previous forecast.
Some of the latest high res model guidance, including the ARW2 and
NAM nest, are suggesting the potential for a period of enhanced
convective precipitation with 2 to 4 inches possible near the
southeast NC Coast, particularly from the NC/SC border to the
southern Outer Banks. The latest 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS are also
on board with this idea, indicating a corridor of heavy rain
within 30 miles of the coast. Although the dry antecedent
conditions are a mitigating factor, a small Slight Risk area was
introduced with this forecast issuance for extreme southeast NC,
and the Marginal Risk area was expanded slightly farther southwest
to include the greater Savannah, GA metro area.

Hamrick/Pagano

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 03 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 04 2019

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


$$




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------------=_1556035207-1967-2965
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FOUS30 KWBC 231559
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Apr 23 2019 - 12Z Wed Apr 24 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...North Central Texas...
Early morning convective complexes have significantly diminished
but have supported an elongated shortwave/MCV into NE OK with the
tail end of the mid-level trof aligned with the surface boundary
that at 15z was located from the Davis Mountains to DYS to ADM.
Stronger closed upper level low well southwest in northern old
Mexico is providing broad height-falls supporting a fairly tight
low level stacked cyclone near FST. This setup is leading to a
split low level flow across North-Central TX with deeper, stronger return-moisture flow along the Rio Grande Valley. GOES-16 Visible
imagery denotes this branch with a thicker low level stratus deck
that is impeding solar insolation. This is opposed to points
across Northern TX east of 100W starting to clear ahead of the
frontal zone. Guidance continues to support this increase in
instability with CAPE values of 1500+ J/kg expected toward late
afternoon. Low level flow is not particularly strong but given
stronger northerly flow, there is ample directional moisture
convergence that will spark convection. Low level moisture flux
will also be quite efficient especially in the eastern branch
early on this evening, becoming quite confluent and increasing
overall deep available moisture up to 1.5" just after 00z centered
near the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. As the MCV leaves, the
overall mid-level steering flow will also be fairly weak and
support slower ENE motions fairly parallel to the frontal zone.
Global guidance, supported by Hi-Res CAMs (esp. 00z and 12z
ARW/ARW2 and 12z HRRR/09z HRRRe) suggest solid rainfall efficiency
with hourly rain totals up to 1.5"; combined with the parallel
steering flow supports some training/repeat tracks in the
evening/early overnight hours. Areal average 2-4" totals are
possible in a axis from SJT to GVT, including the Dallas-Fort
Worth Metro area clearly supportive of a Slight Risk of Excessive
rainfall and flash flooding conditions. The only good news, is
the axis appears to lie directly within the area least affected
over the last 14 days per AHPS anomaly precipitation analysis.
Only the far northeastern sections near Dallas-Fort Worth are
above average through that time period and poses the possibility
of an upgrade of a small Moderate Risk if worst case scenario
unfolds later this evening. However, there is sufficient
uncertainty in magnitude and precise location to draw that area
just yet.

Further West in the Southern Permian Basin and Big Bend Region...
Near the surface cyclone, moisture will be pooling and convection
will develop in a similar manner but could be a bit more broken
along the frontal zone due to the split in low level flow/flux.
Yet, upper level divergence/diffluence is very strong to support
the deepening cyclone as well as aiding storm rainfall
efficiency/outflow to provide an environment for potential for
heavy rainfall. As the instability from solar insolation wanes,
shortwave height-falls, favorable left jet streak dynamics and
strengthening LLJ up the Rio Grande Valley leads to the potential
for a secondary convective complex to develop in the Big Bend
region. The uncertainty here is in timing and how far north/south
the complex will track...as such have expanded the Slight Risk to
encompass a bit more area of the NW Edwards Plateau and northern
bend of the Big Bend due to this uncertainty.

Gallina



Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

PW values up to 1.75 inch will continue to feed into in the storm
system allowing persistent, widespread convection as the surface
cold front passes through central Texas and Oklahoma. The fairly
slow progression of the front, along with strong surface
convergence, instability (noted by surface based CAPE >2000 J/kg)
and enhanced lift in the mid/upper atmosphere will help sustain
widespread convection over this region.

Model trends maintain swaths of 2 to 5+ inches across
central/eastern Texas into far southwest Oklahoma, most focusing
into the the Autstin to Dallas cooridor with the highest QPF
maximams. High resolution guidance has persistently depicted
multiple hours where rainfall rates are 1 to 1.5 inches/per hour
associated with convective activity. Current 1 hour FFG for much
of Texas is 2 to 3 inches, with 3-hourly values of 2 to 4 inches.
Based on the expected setup, anticipate QPF and high rainfall
rates will likely be problematic across central Texas. The Slight
Risk was refined for central Texas into far southern Oklahoma to
reflect updates to the WPC QPF. Confidence is fairly high that
some locations will exceed FFG, however, the exact placement of
the front and thus the heaviest QPF axis is still unknown as of
this issuance. Depending on model trends and changing soil
saturation from rains expected late today and on Day 2, portions
of central Texas will likely need to be upgrade to a Moderate Risk
as the threat for flash flooding rises.


Campbell/Pagano

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Apr 26 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EASTERN TEXAS
AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

The low pressure system will pick up its pace on Friday as it
tracks from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Gulf states. Anomalously high moisture (nearly 2.5 deviations
above seasonal average) will continue to draw into the system.
Similar to the environment on Thursday, there will be strong
surface convergence, instability (noted by surface based CAPE up
to 2000 J/kg) and enhanced lift in the mid/upper atmosphere will
help sustain widespread convection over this region.

Antecedent soil saturation over eastern Texas will play a role in
the likelihood of exceeding FFG on Friday. Current 1 hour FFG
ranges from 1.5 inches over western Tennessee to 3 to 4 inches
near the Gulf Coast, with 3-hourly values of 2 to 4 inches. High
resolution guidance shows multiple hours with hourly rates of 0.75
to 1.25 inches, which could meet or exceed FFG. Therefore a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding was introduced from eastern Texas
to western Tennessee.


Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt


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